Bundesliga Predictions: Who is the favourite to become Bundesliga champions based on sportmonks data?

Why Sportmonks’ Bundesliga Predictions stand out

Sportmonks stands out by using advanced AI and machine learning to refine predictions with new data, providing accurate, up-to-date insights all season. We also have player-specific insights. We don’t only look at team statistics; we also explore individual performances, tracking how players, especially stars, influence their teams’ overall dynamics. By studying individual brilliance alongside team chemistry, Sportmonks delivers an extensive and informative prediction model.

This detailed analysis gives users an edge, whether they’re betting, managing a fantasy team, or simply following the Bundesliga as passionate fans. With Sportmonks, you’re always one step ahead, equipped with the knowledge to make smarter decisions and understand the game on a deeper level.

From upsets to dominance: Making sense of the Bundesliga results

The Bundesliga has provided its share of drama, tactical showdowns, and moments of brilliance this season. Here are key matches that have shaped the league:

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen (2-3)

An electrifying opening match where Leverkusen showcased their attacking prowess under Xabi Alonso, overcoming a spirited Mönchengladbach side in a high-scoring affair. The game highlighted the tactical duel between two teams with different philosophies.

Leverkusen dominated with 600+ passes, 55% of the ball and 25 shot attempts to Monchengladbach’s 400+, 45% and 14.

Sportmonks correctly predicted that Leverkusen had a higher chance of winning (41.2%2) and despite leaving it late , Florian Wirtz slammed home on the rebound after seeing his penalty saved.

Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart (2-0)

Mainz showcased a defensive masterclass, securing a clean sheet against a formidable Stuttgart side.

It was a match where Mainz were dominated as they recorded only 5 shots and  43% of the ball, but created better chances with an xG of 1.54 to Stuttgart’s 0.93.

This victory was crucial in demonstrating Mainz’s capability for an upset, effectively neutralizing Stuttgart’s offensive plays with a well-organized defense and strengthened their grip on a European spot.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig (2-3)

This match ended Leverkusen’s winning streak in the Bundesliga since Bochum in May 2023, showcasing Leipzig’s resilience at home and their ability to capitalize on counter-attacks.

Coming into this game, Leverkusen were clear favourites to win with a 55.22% chance according to Sportmonks’ data, but that all quickly changed as they fell at the half 3 goals to nothing.

They created over 3 times the xG of Leipzig (2.75 to 0.89) dominated 2/3’s of the possession and outshot their opposition 26 to 8 , but couldn’t get a positive result in the end.

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen (1-1)

This top-of-the-table clash at the Allianz Arena resulted in a thrilling draw. Despite Bayern’s dominance in possession (69% possession according to our data), Leverkusen matched them with resilience and effective counter-attacks, and took the lead in the game with 1 of their 2 shots on target.

Bayern applied pressure and pegged back the score line 6 minutes from halftime through Aleksandar Pavlovic equalizer to set up an exciting second half.

Despite Bayern’s second half pressure and 18 shots total, they couldn’t find a winner and settled for a draw which kept the title race competitive.

The most likely teams to snatch the Meisterschale

Based on our comprehensive analysis of team performance, player statistics, and other key factors, Sportmonks has identified the following teams as the current favorites to win the Bundesliga title:

1. Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich lead the pack with 48 points from a possible 57, having scored 58 goals and conceded only 16 goals, averaging less than a goal a game (0.8 gc/m). Their squad boasts incredible depth, with world-class players like Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, and Michael Olise leading the charge. Their consistent performance and ability to grind out results indicate that they’re willing to invalidate last season’s slumber.
2. Bayer Leverkusen: The reigning champions are showing signs of slowing down, with 42 points from 19 matches so far, as opposed to 53 as of this time last season. While they still have some catching up to do, trailing Bayern by 6 points, they are no slouch when it comes to winning games late or pulling out results from games they have been written off from. Their dynamic and attacking style of play, led by Florian Wirtz and Victor Boniface, has been a joy to watch.
3. Eintracht Frankfurt: Eintracht Frankfurt’s resurgence has been one of the most exciting storylines of the Bundesliga season. Their strong team spirit, tactical flexibility, and clinical finishing have propelled them to 3rd in the table. While overcoming an 11 point gap may be unlikely, especially after over 50% of games played, don’t put anything past them just yet as they could be a major player in halting other contenders’ chances for glory.