Introduction: The Role of Possession in Football
Football is an invasion sport, but does possession lead to winning? Football matches exist in a transitional state, with phases of attack and defense as one team attacks while the other defends. By that logic, we should be able to categorically say that the team with the highest value of possession of the ball at the end of the match should have won, right? Logically speaking, if a team has more possession of the ball than their opposition, they will create more opportunities to score, making them more likely to win. However, football rarely follows strict logic.
The Power of Data in Modern Football
That is where the use of data comes in, as we look to identify key factors and trends that lead to success in a sport that is so transitional. By using exclusive Sportmonks data, we can drill down further into the underlying reasons that teams are successful in a football context in order to better explore the relationship between possession and points in a football context.
To do so, we will use football data from the English Premier League’s 2023/24 season so far. (till the 4th match day)
Does Possession Lead to Winning in the Premier League?
Let’s start by identifying the three Premier League teams who have had the highest average possession over the course of the first four matches of the Premier League season.
Tottenham Hotspur – 69%
Southampton – 68.67%
Manchester City – 65%
After these three teams, there is a significant drop off to the fourth-highest average possession at 58% (Brighton for those that are interested), but these three are comfortably the highest ball possession on average across the opening set of league matches. So, if possession were crucial, this should reflect in league positions, right?
Key Data: Does Possession Lead to Winning Football Matches?
Well, not quite. At the time of writing Tottenham Hotspur are sitting in 10th place with 4 points. Southampton are sitting in 19th position, out of 20, with 0 points, and Manchester City is sitting in 1st place with 9 points. So, of the three teams that we identified as top performers in terms of possession, at least one are performing at the top of the table. We need to add context to understand why Manchester City are at the top. While they do have a high average possession, they also have a certain Erling Haaland that they can rely on to score goals and a certain Pep Guardiola in the dugout to implement his game plans.
If this is the case, then does our initial question as to whether higher possession leads to a greater level of success does not hold true? Well, as is so often the case in football, the answer to that question is both yes and no, with little in the way of absolute truths.
The Role of Possession in Creating Chances
Having possession of the ball as opposed to allowing the opposition to have the ball is, of course, very important. Indeed, the legendary Dutch coach Johan Cryuff is widely acknowledged as one of the key influencers behind Guardiola and many other modern coaches. Cryuff had said that as long as they had the ball, the opposition could not score a goal. So, possession and having control of the ball is extremely important, but just preventing the opposition from having goal-scoring chances is not enough for a team to be successful; the key is what you do with the ball when you have possession in terms of creating opportunities to score for yourself.
While Cryuff is correct in that having possession of the ball means that the opposition cannot score, it also increases your own chances of scoring goals, and this comes to the key point in relation to possession and whether having the ball is enough to make your team successful either in individual matches or across a full season. If you have possession of the ball, then you are more likely to create chances and to score more goals.
By adding the extra layer of chances created to pure average possession numbers, we are hitting closer to the key point in football, which is ensuring that you can win matches. Once again, though, we can use the football data to drill further down into team performance and understand how and why teams tend to be successful. Generating scoring chances, of course, means generating shots, but shots per 90 along is not a data point that is typically instructive in terms of understanding which teams are successful. What is important is the quality of these shots and the areas from which teams take their shooting opportunities. This is why we can use the expected goals data provided by Sportmonks in order to further drill down into team performance and add an extra layer of context on why purely having possession of the ball does not equal success.
The Role of Quality Chances and Expected Goals (xG)
Let’s look at the expected goals data from Manchester City’s first three Premier League matches this season to better understand how they have been successful. In the opening match of the season, they played away to Chelsea, and they finished with an xG of 1.1002 compared to an xG for Chelsea of 1.3290. A slight advantage for Chelsea, but the final score was 2-0 for Manchester City. The difference in the game? The aforementioned Erling Haaland is playing and contributing in the attacking phase for City.
The other two examples, however, are more instructive. In matchday two Manchester City played hosts to newly promoted Ipswich Town and they generated 2.3642 xG compared to 0.1959 for Ipswich, the final score? 4-1 to City.
In matchday three, they played away to West Ham United and generated an xG of 2.454 compared to 0.9809 for West Ham, and they won the match 3-1.
Possession Versus Execution: Why City Excel
So, we know that Manchester City have performed well so far this season; after three matchdays, they sat at the top of the table, and we know that they have been one of the most possession-dominant sides in the league, but the key thing that we have to understand is why City have been more successful so far this season than both Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton despite both of those sides being, on average, more possession dominant.
Conclusion: Possession is Important, But Not the Only Factor
The key to this question and the most important factor as to whether a team is successful or not over longer periods of time can be explained through Sportmonks data. When we start to leverage and evaluate expected goals data, we are better able to understand what it is that teams are doing when they have possession of the ball to create chances and to win football games. The deciding factor as to whether a team is successful or not is not whether they can simply out-possess the opposition but what they do to create chances and hurt the opposition when they have the ball. This is why possession of the ball in the final third will lead to a better quality of chance being created, and this is why the likes of Manchester City are extremely dangerous and effective when they have the ball.
