Who are the favourites to win Afcon 2025

Tournament history and recent context

A legacy of excellence

The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) began in February 1957 in Khartoum, Sudan, where Egypt defeated the host nation in the final. It has since grown into the continent’s most prestigious football competition, showcasing African talent globally.
– Most successful: Egypt stands as the tournament’s most successful nation with seven titles, including a remarkable hat-trick between 2006 and 2010.
– Evolution: What began with just three teams has transformed into a 24-team spectacle.
– The expansion to 24 teams in 2019 widened the continental reach, allowing emerging footballing nations their shot at glory.

2023 winners and recent developments

– Ivory Coast claimed the 2023 trophy (held in early 2024) after defeating Nigeria 2-1 in a dramatic final, marking their third AFCON title.
– Their victory proved that even traditionally dominant nations can be toppled, setting the stage for a competitive 2025 edition.

The qualifying campaign for Morocco 2025 delivered major shocks:

– Biggest shock: Ghana, four-time African champions, failed to qualify after finishing bottom of their group, missing out on the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since 2004. This stunning upset underscores just how competitive African football has become.
– Record setters: Tunisia qualified for the 22nd time, extending their record for consecutive participations with their 17th appearance in a row.
– Hosts’ intent: Morocco qualified for the tournament despite having an automatic spot as hosts, choosing to participate in qualifying and topping their group as a clear statement of intent.

The clear favourite: Morocco

Morocco enters AFCON 2025 as the undisputed team to beat. They boast home advantage, a record of 18 consecutive international victories, and an inspirational captain in Achraf Hakimi. The Atlas Lions are clear favourites in the eyes of bookmakers and analysts alike.

Home advantage in full effect

The last time Morocco hosted AFCON was in 1988, nearly 40 years ago, making this a historic opportunity. Playing in front of passionate home crowds across six major cities will provide an immeasurable psychological boost as they pursue their first continental crown since 1976.

An elite squad at peak form

Following their historic semi-final run at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Morocco stands as the highest-ranked team in Africa at 11th in the FIFA World Rankings. They went undefeated through CAF World Cup qualifying with a perfect 8-0 record, demonstrating the consistency and quality that defines Walid Regragui’s side.

Star talent

On paper, Morocco is one of Africa’s strongest teams, anchored by star right-back Achraf Hakimi. Hakimi was named 2025 African Player of the Year at the CAF Awards, and Moroccan football made a strong overall showing at that ceremony, collecting honours across six major categories and featuring eight Moroccan winners and nominees recognised across awards for players, goalkeepers and teams. This reflects the deep talent present in Moroccan football.

Squad consistency

Their squad is a blend of experienced stars and emerging talent, all operating at peak form.

The narrative

Morocco’s journey is a quest to end nearly five decades without an AFCON crown. With home support, world-class talent, and massive momentum from their World Cup exploits, they enter as heavy favourites. However, as the tournament’s history shows, pressure and expectations in Africa’s showpiece competition can be unforgiving.

The heavyweights chasing the crown

Morocco may be the favourites, but several top sides have the quality and experience to challenge them. These four teams have the squad depth, leaders, and tournament know-how to go all the way.

Egypt: The eternal contenders

Egypt have named a 28-man squad for AFCON 2025, led by Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah, alongside Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush. The Pharaohs have not won AFCON since 2010, so the drive to lift an eighth title feels stronger than ever. With a mix of seasoned heads and rising talent, Egypt will lean heavily on Salah and Marmoush to deliver in the biggest moments.

Senegal: The defending spirit

Senegal won AFCON 2021 after a tense final against Egypt, decided on penalties, and they arrive in Morocco as serious contenders again. They are still packed with experience, led by Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gana Gueye, and Sadio Mané. At the same time, players like Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaila Sarr add fresh energy and new options in attack. Mané remains a key figure, although there is quiet uncertainty about how many more title pushes he has left.

Nigeria: Redemption seekers

Nigeria’s Super Eagles come into AFCON 2025 with extra motivation after failing to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Their attack is one of the deepest in the tournament, led by two recent African Footballer of the Year winners: Victor Osimhen (2023) and Ademola Lookman (2024). With several core players reaching the later stages of their prime, this tournament could be a defining chance to win something major. Nigeria will be hungry, fearless, and dangerous.

Algeria: The steady hands

Algeria are chasing a third AFCON title, having previously won in 1990 and 2019. Captain Riyad Mahrez remains vital, not only for his quality on the ball, but also for the guidance he gives to younger players. After a difficult spell that included early exits at AFCON 2021 and 2023, Algeria look ready to push back into the top tier. Forward Mohamed Amoura has emerged as a standout, leading the 2026 World Cup qualifiers scoring chart with 10 goals. Algeria combines experience with a clear edge, and they look determined to reclaim their place among Africa’s best.

Other contenders to watch

While the top favourites take most of the spotlight, AFCON rarely follows a simple script. These three sides have the tools to cause real problems and shake up the tournament.

Ivory Coast: The defending stumble?

Defending champions Ivory Coast have named their squad with a fresh look, recalling 33-year-old Wilfried Zaha after almost two years away, while leaving out AFCON 2023 hero Simon Adingra. Coach Emerse Faé has tried to balance proven experience with new energy, keeping younger players such as Yan Diomandé and Amad Diallo.

The big question is chemistry. Winning back-to-back AFCON titles is rare, and changes like Zaha’s return, plus the absence of trusted performers, could either lift the group or unsettle what worked in 2024. Ivory Coast are chasing a fourth AFCON crown, but they may face a tougher test than many expect.

Tunisia: Tactical masters on the rise

Tunisia are one of Africa’s most consistent tournament teams, known for strong organisation, smart game management, and plenty of experience. They have qualified for every AFCON since 1994, and they carry that streak into 2025 with quiet confidence.

Their recent form adds belief, including an impressive World Cup qualification run and a morale-boosting draw against Brazil. Tunisia are built for tight matches, with defensive solidity and calm midfield control. If they make it through a tricky Group C alongside Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania, they can become a real threat in the knockout rounds.

South Africa: The bronze believers

South Africa arrive with momentum after winning bronze at AFCON 2023. Coach Hugo Broos has named a 25-man squad that mixes experience, toughness, and emerging talent. He has kept nine players from the bronze-winning group while adding two uncapped 20-year-olds, showing he is planning for both now and the future.

Broos has set a clear target: match or better their last run by reaching the semi-finals. With organised defending and improving options going forward, South Africa have a genuine chance to surprise bigger teams. They begin their campaign against Angola on 22 December.

Key factors influencing predictions

Star names grab attention, but AFCON is often decided by structure, preparation, and decision-making under pressure. These factors are likely to shape who wins the trophy in Morocco.

Home advantage and crowd factor

Hosting can be a major boost, and Morocco will feel that fully. The December to January schedule brings milder conditions, which can help reduce fatigue compared to tournaments played in hotter months. Just as important is the lift that comes from home crowds across six major cities. Strong stadiums and modern facilities can also raise the energy around the team. No other side will have this scale of support.

Squad depth and balance

AFCON is not only about first-choice players. Teams need reliable options across the pitch, plus players who can cover more than one role. This gives coaches flexibility, especially in knockout matches where tactics often change quickly. Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Nigeria all have different strengths, but the common requirement is depth. Teams without it often fall short when injuries, suspensions, or fatigue hit.

Recent form and tournament momentum

Qualifying form is usually a better guide than friendlies. It shows how a team performs when results truly matter. Strong qualifying runs can build belief and rhythm, while poor ones can create doubt. Morocco’s long winning streak and strong goal difference point to high consistency, which is a valuable edge in a tight tournament.

Injury management

Fitness can change everything. Many players arrive after demanding club schedules, so even one key injury can shift the balance of power. Concerns around players with minor injuries, such as an ankle issue for Achraf Hakimi, show how quickly a team’s outlook can change. Squads that manage workloads well and recover players in time often go further.

Tournament experience and mentality

Experience matters, but only when it comes with the right mindset. Teams like Egypt and Senegal know how to handle the pressure swings of AFCON, especially in knockout matches. They understand how to manage game moments, protect leads, and stay calm when tension rises. Morocco and Nigeria have strong talent, but recent AFCON experience deep into the tournament can be a deciding factor in tight games.

Tactical flexibility and coaching

Winning coaches adapt well in real time. Plans often need to change mid-match due to injuries, red cards, or sudden shifts in momentum. Morocco’s Walid Regragui has shown strong adaptability since the 2022 World Cup. Senegal’s Aliou Cissé and Egypt’s Erick Shomar also bring experience at the top level. At this tournament, one brave substitution or shape change can be the difference.

The knockout draw

The route matters. Group winners can avoid certain big teams until later rounds, which can change a tournament quickly. The system that allows some third-place teams to progress can also open unexpected paths to the final. A kind draw, plus a bit of luck at the right time, can push an outsider into the title picture.

Data-driven predictions: Leveraging Sportmonks intelligence

Making informed AFCON predictions takes more than intuition. You need reliable, up-to-date data on player form, team performance, and historical matchups. That is where football intelligence tools can make a real difference.

Comprehensive coverage and speed

Sportmonks’ Football API covers over 2,300 football leagues worldwide, with access to live scores, line-ups, odds, and match stats, updated in under 15 seconds. For tournament analysis, this level of coverage helps you track not only Morocco and the main favourites, but also rising threats like Tunisia and South Africa through their domestic form and recent results.

Granular statistical depth

The detail goes further with the Sportmonks Football Stats API. It supports advanced tracking across more than 2,300 leagues, including expected goals (xG), attacking and defensive insights, and performance breakdowns such as minutes played and passing output.

This makes it easier to spot patterns that are easy to miss with casual viewing, like Morocco’s 55 goals across an 18-match winning streak, or Victor Osimhen’s goals-per-match efficiency for Nigeria.

Algorithmic prediction models

Strong predictions need more than raw history. Sportmonks’ Prediction API provides model-driven predictions for over 900 leagues. For AFCON 2025, that means probability outputs built from key inputs such as:
– squad composition
– recent form
– injury status
– tactical matchups
– venue factors, including Morocco’s home advantage

These insights are packaged into clear, actionable probabilities you can use for analysis and forecasting.

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