Who are the favourites to win the Champions League in the 2025–2026 season?

2024–25 season recap: historic triumphs and record moments

PSG’s landmark victory

Paris Saint-Germain won their first-ever UEFA Champions League title, beating Inter Milan 5–0 in the final held at the Allianz Arena in Munich on 31 May 2025. This remains the largest winning margin in any major European club final, cementing their triumph in history.

A season of records

PSG’s victory saw them break several records:
– Longest wait for a first UCL title: PSG ended their 31-year wait since their debut in 1994–95.
– Most appearances before the first title: They achieved this milestone in their 17th Champions League appearance.
– PSG’s biggest-ever final win: The 5–0 scoreline broke the record set by Milan’s 4–0 win in 1994.
– Seven different scorers in one UCL match: In a 7–0 league-phase win over Brest, PSG became the first team to do this.

Emerging stars & standout performers

Désiré Doué, who was 19 years old at the time, was a star in the final, scoring two goals and getting one assist. This made him the youngest player ever and one of only six to score and assist in a Champions League final. He was also named young player of the season, and manager Luis Enrique won his second continental treble (the first was with Barcelona), making him only the second manager after Pep Guardiola to do so.

Competition format & scope

The 2024–25 season was the 70th overall and the 33rd since the Champions League rebranding. It debuted a new 36-team “league phase” format, which increased the total number of matches played from 125 to 189 and changed how teams qualified.

Key stats & moments

– The tournament started on 17 September 2024 and finished on 31 May 2025.
– The top scorers included Raphinha and Serhou Guirassy, with 13 goals each.
– Doué’s final performance saw him emerge as a standout young talent.

Top betting favourites for 2025–26

As of early September 2025, betting markets and expert commentary agree on the main contenders for the UEFA Champions League. However, the exact odds can vary slightly between different bookmakers.

SkyBet standouts
According to SkyBet, Liverpool and Barcelona are the pre-season favourites with odds of 11/2. They are closely followed by Paris Saint-Germain at 6/1, Arsenal at 13/2, and Real Madrid at 15/2. Other teams like Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Chelsea are also in the mix.

Covers.com outlook
Covers.com sees a tighter race between the top three, listing PSG, Liverpool, and Barcelona all equally at +600. This highlights the small difference in their chances at the start of the season.

Bet365 & action network trends
Bet365 puts Liverpool slightly ahead at +550, followed by Real Madrid at +650, and Arsenal and PSG at +700. Manchester City and Barcelona are also in the mix at +800. Betfair confirms Liverpool and Barcelona as joint favourites, reinforcing their top position in the market.

Open markets snapshot
DraftKings has Liverpool as slight favourites at +600, followed by Real Madrid at +650 and PSG at +700. The Sports Geek has a different view, suggesting Barcelona has the best odds at +600, with PSG at +650, and Arsenal and Liverpool at +700 each.

Power rankings from experts
FourFourTwo places PSG at the top of its power rankings, followed by Barcelona, Liverpool, and Real Madrid. This shows a close battle for the top spot.

Tactical & squad depth analyses

Tactical trends shaping the 2025–26 Champions League

Modern Champions League campaigns are increasingly defined by tactical adaptability and intelligent pressing. Analysts have noticed three key trends this season:
– Quick-pressing systems: Teams like Manchester City and Arsenal use a fluid pressing style that changes dynamically between attack and defence, aiming to win the ball back as quickly as possible.
– Formation flexibility: Formations are now highly adaptable, with teams switching between a 3-4-3 and a 4-3-3 during a game to break down rigid defences.
– Strategic innovation off-pitch: Data on player rotation, injury tracking, and team modelling are now heavily influencing coaching strategy and betting markets.

Real Madrid’s depth and managerial acumen

Real Madrid’s recent success is largely due to Xabi Alonso’s squad-building strategy, which has improved both the quality and depth of the team. Key signings like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen have added to the squad’s flexibility. The team’s mix of experienced leadership and tactical balance means they have the ability to make a deep run into the knockout stages.

Bayern Munich: tactical refinement under Kompany

Bayern have kept their high-pressing style under Vincent Kompany but with more squad rotation and player flexibility.
– Central midfielders like Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka play a dual role, protecting the defence while also helping to start attacks in a dynamic 4-2-3-1 formation.
– Kompany is focused on consistency in the league phase, aiming for at least four wins to secure qualification for the knockout rounds.

Liverpool’s youth-first strategy

Liverpool’s Champions League squad has made a notable strategic shift. They have left out established players like Federico Chiesa in favour of younger, homegrown talents like Rio Ngumoha and Giovanni Leoni. This aligns with UEFA’s squad composition rules and their long-term vision of developing young players. This shows how strategic planning and squad registration rules are shaping team line-ups for the season.

PSG’s winning formula

Under Luis Enrique, PSG’s blend of youthful flair and senior creativity continues to be a highlight. Ousmane Dembélé had a remarkable season, being named UEFA’s player of the season and contributing to 48 goals in all competitions. The combination of Désiré Doué’s dynamic breakthrough performances and the precision of the experienced players highlights the team’s balanced attack.

Dark horses & surprise packages

Napoli, Tottenham, Chelsea, Atlético Madrid, and Inter are frequently mentioned as long shots with a real chance of causing a surprise.
– Atlético Madrid are highlighted for their well-drilled defensive setup and their ability to frustrate top teams in high-stakes knockout matches.
– Sporting CP, Benfica, Bayer Leverkusen, and Napoli stand out for their mix of youthful energy, tactical cohesion, and rising star players.
– Pundits and bettors alike anticipate that at least one of these teams could reach the semi-finals, defying expectations.
– A look at the draw also identifies Napoli, Tottenham, Newcastle, and Galatasaray as dark horses capable of getting through the early rounds and causing an upset.

Sportmonks: A strategic tool for Champions League analysis

Sportmonks offers extensive API coverage for the UEFA Champions League, providing data-rich applications from live match tracking to predictive analysis. Here’s how our tools can enhance your content or support a live-updating website.

Champions League data integration

The Champions League API provides up-to-date fixtures, live scores, line-ups, in-play events, match statistics, league tables, top scorers, and more. This is all crucial for tracking developments in the 2025–26 season. It also includes historical data and supports the new 36-team “league phase” format, keeping your coverage up to date with the tournament’s evolution.

Machine-driven predictions & value insights

Our Predictions API uses sophisticated machine learning models to forecast match outcomes, such as a win, draw, or loss, correct score, and over/under goals. It also considers factors like player form, injuries, and historical data. Predictions are released up to 21 days before kick-off, with daily updates for accuracy. The Value Bet endpoint identifies opportunities where predicted probabilities exceed bookmaker odds, which is helpful for highlighting underrated contenders.

Broad API ecosystem & developer support

Sportmonks operates on API version 3.0, which is known for its high data quality, reliability, and expanded statistics. This includes coach and referee metrics, ball coordinates, a pressure index, and predictive line-ups. It also has stronger filtering capabilities, making it ideal for building detailed, data-driven stories. The pricing tiers include free trials and scalable plans, making it accessible for media, betting sites, or fan platforms to use Champions League data, predictions, and analytics.

Bring the Champions League closer with Sportmonks

The 2025–26 UEFA Champions League season will be full of drama and surprises, and with Sportmonks you can follow every detail in real time. Our Champions League API delivers live scores, line-ups, in-play match events, advanced statistics, and predictive insights that help you see the game from every angle. Whether you want to enhance a fan platform, create a betting tool, or build a data-driven publication, Sportmonks gives you the power to bring the competition to life with accurate and reliable information. Start exploring the Sportmonks Champions League API today and make the most of the season ahead.