Contents
A look back at last season
The 2024/25 Premier League season was a mix of drama, surprises, and big moments. Led by their new manager, Arne Slot, Liverpool emerged as champions, winning their 20th English top-flight title with four games to spare.
The title race and final table
Liverpool finished at the top with a total of 84 points, showing great consistency throughout the season. Arsenal finished as runners-up with 74 points, while Manchester City secured third place with 71 points. Chelsea and Newcastle United also had a good season, finishing fourth and fifth respectively, which secured them a place in the Champions League. At the bottom of the table, Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton were all relegated to the Championship.
Standout performers & records
Mohamed Salah was widely named the season’s best player. He finished as the top scorer with 29 goals and had a record-equalling 47 goal involvements. The season itself saw a total of 1,091 goals scored, making it the second-highest scoring 38-game season in league history. Liverpool also went on an unbeaten run of 26 matches, which shows how dominant they were.
Memorable narratives and surprises
Arne Slot’s first season in charge was praised for his tactical maturity. He took control of a thrilling and unpredictable title race with great results. Nottingham Forest defied expectations by finishing high up in the table, while Crystal Palace ended the season with an FA Cup win and a solid league performance. The season also showed the growing strength in the middle of the table and the enduring unpredictability of the league.
Off-season transfers: Who reinforced or reshaped their title push?
The summer 2025 transfer window was record-breaking, with Premier League clubs spending over £3.1 billion, the highest ever in a single window. Here’s how the top clubs handled this period of big changes.
Liverpool
Liverpool were the top spenders, with a record outlay of over £446 million. Their marquee signings included:
– Alexander Isak from Newcastle for a British-record £125 million.
– Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen for around £100 million.
– Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt for roughly £79 million.
– Jeremie Frimpong from Bayer Leverkusen for £29.5 million.
– Milos Kerkez from Bournemouth for £40 million.
While they did lose key players like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Díaz, the overhaul in attack was significant
Arsenal
Arsenal spent over £250 million on new talent, focusing on strengthening multiple positions. Key acquisitions included:
– Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace for around £60 million.
– Viktor Gyökeres from Sporting Lisbon for £55.5 million.
– Martín Zubimendi from Real Sociedad for £55.8 million.
– Noni Madueke from Chelsea for £52 million.
The club’s net spend was the highest in the league.
Manchester City
Manchester City invested heavily, spending around £181.6 million, with a focus on both the first team and the academy. Notable signings included:
– Rayan Aït-Nouri from Wolves for £36 million.
– Tijjani Reijnders from AC Milan for £46.3 million.
– Rayan Cherki from Lyon for £34 million.
Their approach was strategic, rebuilding the squad’s depth in key areas.
Chelsea
While Chelsea’s spending was not as high as others, they made some impactful moves. They signed João Pedro for £55 million and Estevão for £28.5 million. This activity has earned them recognition as a dark horse in the title race.
Other clubs: bold moves across the field
– Manchester United landed Bryan Mbeumo for a staggering £71 million.
– Promoted clubs also made significant moves. Sunderland made their most ambitious transfer window ever, bringing in a mix of experienced players like Granit Xhaka and rising talents.
– Burnley and Leeds United also spent over £100 million each on new additions.
What’s at stake this season?
As the 2025/26 Premier League season gets underway, the battles for the title, European qualification, and survival are more intense than ever. This is due to record-breaking spending, big rewards, and new technology.
Title glory and big money at the top
The Premier League is one of the richest domestic leagues in the world, which fuels a fierce competition for the title. Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City are all in a tight race for the top spot, with the betting odds being very close and the scrutiny on them increasing early in the season. Betting markets have suggested that Arsenal might have a slightly easier schedule towards the end of the season, which could give them an advantage.
Champions League qualification
Getting a place in the UEFA Champions League is not just about prestige; it’s worth tens of millions of pounds. Clubs earn at least €18.6 million just for reaching the group stage, with significantly more money available as they advance. A long run, like Arsenal’s semi-final appearance, can generate nearly £100 million in prize money alone. For a team like Manchester United, who are not in Europe this season, the loss of this income is huge. They face an estimated £80 million revenue shortfall, which shows how critical European qualification is for a club’s finances and stability.
UEFA country coefficients & European access
Premier League clubs have a shared responsibility to keep England’s high UEFA coefficient. Strong performances in Europe help to secure crucial spots in future Champions Leagues, which benefits not just the big clubs but the entire league. This season, five Premier League clubs will compete in the Champions League, which offers a broader platform but also increases the pressure to perform well.
Skyrocketing TV and prize money
The Premier League’s enormous TV and commercial revenue has driven record-setting club spending. A total of €3.5 billion was spent in the recent summer transfer window, which is more than the combined spending of Spain’s La Liga, Italy’s Serie A, Germany’s Bundesliga, and France’s Ligue 1. Success this season could add tens of millions more to club budgets through prize money and broadcasting deals.
Relegation, promoted teams, and commercial survival
At the other end of the table, relegation has massive financial consequences, from lost TV money to sponsorship reductions. Sunderland, Burnley, and Leeds are early favourites to be relegated. This could severely impact their finances and their ability to operate in the future. For the top teams, the financial reward of European qualification versus the risk of relegation adds another strategic layer to every single match.
Technological, regulatory & managerial shifts
This season has introduced semi-automated offside technology, which is a big step forward in officiating. In addition, “Ref-Cams” are being tested and may be used in the league, while Puma has replaced Nike as the official match ball supplier. There have also been managerial changes, with Thomas Frank moving to Tottenham and Brentford appointing Keith Andrews. These changes promise to shake up the competition at both the top and bottom of the table.
The role of Sportmonks’ data & predictive models
Sportmonks makes football analysis better by providing real-time, AI-powered insights that go far beyond traditional stats. This gives fans, analysts, and platforms a real advantage.
Real-time data & rich metrics at your fingertips
Sportmonks powers its insights with a huge amount of real-time and historical match data. This covers everything from goals, assists, possession, and substitutions to deep, advanced stats. Our coverage spans over 2,500 leagues, including the Premier League, and it comes with strong developer tools and reliable integration. We also provide Expected Goals (xG) metrics, such as xG on target, non-penalty xG, and expected points, through our specialised API endpoints. These metrics are essential for predictive modelling and performance analysis.
Prediction power: machine learning & daily updates
Sportmonks’ Predictions API uses machine learning models trained on historical and live data. It offers forecasts for matches across over 1,350 leagues and 20+ markets, including winner predictions, correct scores, and over/under goals. The API is updated every day, relies on statistical models (with no manual input), and gives precise probability outputs. It’s designed for transparency and accuracy, making it perfect for use in betting platforms, fantasy tools, and sports media.
Tactical insight via big data & real-time analysis
Sportmonks uses big data not just for forecasts, but to help with tactical decisions and interactive insights:
– Tactical planning & opponent analysis: Real-time possession, passing accuracy, and pressing intensity metrics (also known as the Pressure Index) allow coaches and analysts to understand and react to patterns during a game.
– Player optimisation: Detailed data on player movements, sprint distances, workloads, and xG contributions helps to prevent injuries and guide training.
– Scouting & recruitment: Scouts can identify undervalued players using advanced metrics like dribbling success, defensive recoveries, and xG potential.
– Enhanced fan engagement: Through apps and fantasy platforms, fans get an immersive, stats-rich experience, from real-time match odds to tactical visuals.
Who are the current favourites to win the Premier League title 2025/26?
As of early September 2025, betting markets and expert commentary agree on three main contenders for the Premier League title, but there’s a lot of talk about a fourth team. The race is full of different stories, strategies, and the potential for a dark horse to emerge.
Liverpool: defending champions and strong early moves
Liverpool have established themselves as the favourites to win the league.
– Odds: They are sitting at around 6/5 with many bookmakers, with an implied probability of approximately 60%.
– Momentum: The club has had a strong start to the season, remaining unbeaten in their opening three league matches, which included a key win over Arsenal.
– Key players: Alexander Isak, a record-breaking £125m signing, is expected to lead their new attack. He is supported by Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz, who bring depth and creativity. Last season’s top scorer, Mohamed Salah, is still a key force. Ibrahima Konaté is a pillar in defence, but his future is now uncertain with rumours of a transfer.
Arsenal: the closest rival with strategic continuity
Arsenal are right behind Liverpool and are also strong contenders for the title.
– Odds: They are typically at 9/4 or 15/8 and are often seen as joint-favourites with Liverpool in the early markets.
– Key players: Declan Rice was named Arsenal’s Player of the Season for 2024/25, and he was also in the Champions League Team of the Season. Martin Ødegaard is the creative engine of the team, and David Raya was the goalkeeper of the season. They have also made some big new signings, including Viktor Gyökeres, Eberechi Eze, and Martín Zubimendi, to add balance and quality to the team. Young academy players like Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly also bring a youthful spark.
Manchester City: dangerous, though slightly underpriced
Manchester City are still in the hunt despite a few changes in the off-season.
– Odds: They are priced from 7/1 to 10/3, which puts them firmly in the top tier of contenders.
– Key players: Erling Haaland is an early favourite to win the Golden Boot, which reinforces City’s competitive edge. The addition of quality players like Cherki, Reijnders and Donnarumma also boosts City’s title hopes.
Chelsea: a dark horse on the rise
Chelsea’s recent resurgence has turned heads and made them a team to watch.
– Odds: They are currently at around 6/1, which is an increasingly attractive price for an underdog.
– Key players: João Pedro is a creative striker who was signed for around £60m. Cole Palmer is already an established star, looking to build from last season and make a significant impact.
Dark horses to watch in the Premier League title race – 2025/26
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham has started the season in a period of significant transition, with a new manager and several high-profile signings and departures.
Odds & momentum
– Tottenham are seen as a long shot for the title, with outright odds of approximately 50/1.
– Their odds for a top-four finish are around 5/1, and a top-six finish is priced at 6/4, indicating that analysts and bookmakers see a European qualification spot as a more realistic goal.
– The team has had a mixed start to the season, with two wins and one loss in their opening three league matches.
Team news & key players
– Manager: Thomas Frank, who was appointed in June 2025, is in the process of rebuilding the squad and establishing his tactical style.
– New faces: The club has been active in the transfer market, bringing in attacking talent like Xavi Simons (£51.8m), Mohammed Kudus (£55m), and Mathys Tel (£30m). Tel, however, has been left out of the Champions League squad due to UEFA’s homegrown player rules.
– Key players
– Dominic Solanke: The club’s record signing from the previous summer, he is the primary striker and a pivotal figure in the attack.
– Brennan Johnson: The Welsh winger has started the season well, contributing two goals in the opening three league matches.
– Micky van de Ven: The Dutch center-back remains a crucial part of the defense, providing stability at the back.
– Departures: The most notable departure is that of club legend Son Heung-min, who was sold to LAFC for £22 million. Other exits include Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and Bryan Gil.
Everton FC
Everton has entered the 2025/26 season with a new home, a new manager, and several key changes to their squad, aiming to move past their recent struggles.
Odds & momentum
– Everton’s odds for winning the title are extremely long, around 350/1.
– Their odds for a top-six finish are approximately 6/1, while relegation is priced at 14/1, suggesting that a mid-table finish is the most likely outcome.
– The team has started the season well, currently sitting in 5th place in the league after three matches with two wins and one loss. This promising start has raised hopes among fans.
Team news & key players
– New home: The 2025/26 season is Everton’s first at their new stadium, the Hill Dickinson Stadium, a significant milestone for the club.
– Manager: David Moyes returned to the club in January 2025 and has been in charge of the squad’s preparations for the new season.
– Key players:
– Thierno Barry: The French U-21 international, signed from Villarreal, is expected to lead the attack. He scored 11 goals in La Liga last season.
– Jack Grealish: The English winger joined on a season-long loan from Manchester City. Moyes has backed Grealish to rediscover his form at Everton.
– Jordan Pickford: The goalkeeper remains a crucial figure and the club is reportedly in talks to extend his contract.
– Jarrad Branthwaite: The young defender is a key player, but he missed the start of the season due to an injury.
– New arrivals: The club has been active in the transfer window, bringing in players such as Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall from Chelsea, Mark Travers from Bournemouth, and Merlin Röhl on loan from SC Freiburg.
– Departures: Key departures include Dominic Calvert-Lewin on a free transfer to Leeds and Youssef Chermiti to Rangers.
Use predictive tools and betting markets to stay ahead
Using predictive tools and betting market insights can give you a real advantage in Premier League analysis, whether you’re placing a bet, managing a fantasy team, or just following the title race.
Leveraging Sportmonks’ predictive arsenal
– Predictions API: Sportmonks offers a powerful Predictions API that uses machine learning models. These models are trained on team form, player injuries, past results, and player contribution data to create accurate forecasts for match outcomes across more than 20 markets.
– Value bet API: For smart bettors, the Value Bet endpoint scans bookmaker odds and flags opportunities where Sportmonks’ probabilities are different from the market consensus. This helps you find potentially valuable betting opportunities.
– Predictability & performance metrics: Each league has a “predictability” rating, which measures how reliable its forecasts are. It tracks things like how often the predictions are correct and the quality of the probabilities over time. This helps you see which competitions, like the Premier League, are easier to predict.
– Comprehensive data suite: Beyond predictions, the Premier League API provides a wide range of tools, including live scores, xG (Expected Goals) and match statistics, line-ups, league tables, and more. This wealth of information is great for tactical analysis and informed decision-making.
Stay ahead with Sportmonks’ Premier League data
From live scores and player stats to AI-driven predictions and betting insights, the Sportmonks Football API helps you stay on top of the Premier League. Power your platform with accurate data and predictive tools from Sportmonks today.
Faqs about the Premier League
