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A look back at last season
The 2024/25 Serie A season had one of the most thrilling title races in recent memory. It ended with a dramatic final-day triumph for Napoli, who won their fourth Serie A title and their second in three years with a hard-fought 2-0 win over Cagliari on 23 May 2025.
Going into the last matchday, the title was wide open, as Napoli led Inter Milan by just one point. While Inter secured a victory of their own, Napoli held firm. A bicycle-kick goal from Scott McTominay just before halftime, followed by a composed finish from Romelu Lukaku after the break, sealed the deal and sent the home crowd into raptures.
By the final whistle, Napoli were at the top of the league table with 82 points from 38 matches, a total built on 24 wins, 10 draws, and just 4 losses. Inter finished narrowly in second with 81 points. Atalanta secured third with 74 points, rounding out the Champions League qualifiers.
Napoli’s victory was as much about their resilience as it was their brilliance. Manager Antonio Conte, who missed the final match due to a suspension, praised his team’s determination, describing winning in Naples as a unique challenge made all the sweeter by their response to pressure. It was a masterclass in mental strength, sealed amid euphoric scenes, fireworks, and flares that lit up the city well into the night.
Off-season transfers: who reinforced or reshaped their title push?
The 2025 Italian summer transfer window had an unusual schedule. It opened with a short first phase from 1 to 10 June for clubs playing in the expanded FIFA Club World Cup. The window then fully reopened on 1 July and closed on 1 September at 8:00 pm. During this time, the top clubs used different strategies to prepare for the new season.
Napoli
Napoli focused on keeping their coaching stability under Antonio Conte and made several high-quality additions.
– Key signings: The team’s headline moves included Kevin De Bruyne arriving on a free transfer, Noa Lang for £25 million, and defensive reinforcements with Sam Beukema and Miguel Gutiérrez.
– Impact: These smart signings support the team’s continuity and tactical style without a complete overhaul of the squad.
Inter Milan
With a new coach, Cristian Chivu, in charge, Inter focused on early and efficient signings.
– Key signings: They made Nicola Zalewski’s loan deal permanent for €6.5 million and added young talent like Petar Sučić, Luis Henrique, and forward Ange-Yoan Bonny for €23 million.
– Impact: These moves add depth to the midfield and attack, helping them compete now and plan for the future.
Juventus
Juventus is in the middle of a long-term rebuild, with a mix of immediate and developmental investments.
– Key signings: They signed Jonathan David on a free transfer to bring in a proven goalscorer. They also added Michele Di Gregorio, Lloyd Kelly, Francisco Conceição, and Nicolás González, with some of these players also aimed at their next-generation development team.
– Impact: The departure of their former loanee, Randal Kolo Muani, back to PSG has created a gap up front, which has led to renewed interest in signing a top-level forward.
Ac Milan
AC Milan made a structured rebuild, spending nearly €99 million to strengthen key areas.
– Key signings: Luka Modrić arrived on a free transfer, bringing invaluable experience. They also added depth to the midfield with Samuele Ricci and Ardon Jashari, and strengthened their defence with Pervis Estupiñán and Koni De Winter. Pietro Terracciano was also signed to provide more depth in goal.
– Impact: This transfer strategy balances proven quality with strengthening the core of the team.
What’s at stake this season?
Champions League vs. European qualification
Getting a top-four spot in Serie A is a vital financial lifeline. Clubs earn a lot of money from UEFA competitions. Just qualifying for the Champions League guarantees a base payment of €18.62 million, with more bonuses for wins, draws, and how a team finishes in the group stage. Getting to the knockout rounds brings in even more money, often making European football essential for a club’s budget.
Broadcast revenue & domestic distribution
Serie A’s domestic TV rights are valued at around €900 million per season, which is currently shared between DAZN and Sky until 2029. However, new government rules are being discussed that could change this. A new bill aims to remove the long-standing “no single buyer” rule, which would allow the league to sell all its rights to one broadcaster. This could increase revenue by following a model similar to Germany’s Bundesliga.
Additionally, the proposed law would require that over 50% of this broadcast money be shared equally among all clubs, which would be a step towards greater financial equality. It would also offer extra income to clubs that promote and play young Italian players.
Broadcast piracy & financial stability
Illegal streaming is a serious threat to the league’s financial health. Serie A CEO Luigi De Siervo has said that piracy is a key factor that is undermining TV revenue, estimating losses of around €300 million per year. This loss of income makes it harder for clubs to invest in youth development and infrastructure. Ultimately, this risks weakening Italian football as a whole and could even affect the country’s standing in UEFA’s coefficient rankings.
Domestic prize money
Serie A’s financial setup ensures that every club gets a solid baseline of money, while also rewarding teams for how well they perform, how popular they are, and their history.
How the prize money is distributed
– Base distribution: Half of the league’s €1.5 billion prize pool, which is €750 million, is shared equally among all 20 clubs. This means every team takes home €37.5 million, no matter where they finish in the league.
– Performance-based bonuses: The other half, another €750 million, is given out based on a mix of factors:
– 20% is based on a club’s popularity and fanbase.
– 30% is based on their historical results since 1946.
The rest is tied to their final position in the league table.
Breakdown by league position
This structure means that finishing in the top spots significantly boosts a club’s revenue, which is vital for managing transfers, player wages, and other operations. Even teams in the middle of the table feel some of the extra benefits, while lower-ranked teams receive minimal rewards beyond the equal base distribution. For example:
– Champions: Napoli earned an extra €32.6 million on top of their €37.5 million base payment for winning the league.
– Runners-up: €27 million.
– Third place: €23 million.
– Fourth place: €19.7 million.
– Fifth place: €17.4 million.
– …all the way down to 20th place, which received just €1.12 million in performance-based payments.
Relegation and stability
Relegation from Serie A to Serie B is a huge financial blow that deeply affects how clubs operate and their long-term survival.
The financial shock of relegation
Dropping into Serie B means losing most of the valuable TV and sponsorship money from Serie A. To help with this, Serie A has “parachute payments” in place, which offer relegated clubs a financial safety net. These payments typically range from €10 million to €25 million, depending on how long they were in the top division and their financial history. Despite these payments, the gap in revenue is still very large, which often causes financial problems.
Salaries adjusted to reality
A new rule has been introduced to help clubs manage their money better. For all contracts signed after 2 September 2025, players who are relegated will automatically have their salaries cut by 25%. This new rule is part of a five-year collective bargaining agreement and helps clubs adjust their spending to match the lower revenue in Serie B. The only exception is for minimum wages based on age, which cannot be reduced. This ensures that younger players are still paid fairly.
Broader financial fragility
Serie A’s financial health is quite delicate. One league executive recently pointed out that illegal streaming is causing a massive €300 million loss in TV revenue every year. This financial strain directly limits a club’s ability to invest in youth development, training facilities, and having a sustainable squad.
The pressure on newly promoted and mid-table clubs
For newly promoted teams, such as Sassuolo, Pisa, and Cremonese for the 2025/26 season, avoiding relegation is crucial. Without an established income and facing fierce competition, these clubs must be careful with their spending to remain financially stable.
UEFA coefficients & league reputation
European performance is a direct lifeline to getting into tournaments, having good seeding in draws, and earning revenue. Serie A’s ranking in the UEFA coefficient hierarchy plays a key role in shaping its clubs’ futures both in Italy and in Europe.
Serie A’s coefficient status
Italy currently ranks second in the UEFA association coefficient, behind England and ahead of Spain. This is based on performances across the 2020-21 to 2024-25 seasons. Its five-season coefficient stands at approximately 81.088, compared to England’s 90.950 and Spain’s 75.078.
Why it matters
The association coefficient determines:
– Champions League and Europa League spots: The top leagues get more direct entries into the group stages of these competitions. For instance, nations ranked 1-4 typically send four teams directly into the Champions League group stage, while others have to go through additional qualifying rounds.
– Seeding and draw advantages: Clubs from higher-ranked associations benefit from more favourable draws in European tournaments, which can give them an easier path to the later stages.
Current trends and risks
While Serie A remains in the top tier of European leagues, recent struggles by its teams in continental competitions have kept the league under pressure. As of February 2025, Italy held third place temporarily behind England and Spain, with a dwindling number of teams in the knockout rounds adding uncertainty about retaining its extra Champions League spaces.
Impact on clubs
At the club level, UEFA coefficients decide seedings and placement in European draws. Italian clubs like Inter, Roma, AC Milan, Atalanta, and Fiorentina have strong coefficients. Inter, for example, is ranked 3rd in Europe with 107.25 points, followed by Roma (10th), Milan (19th), Atalanta (20th), and Fiorentina (21st). This influence means an easier path in Champions League and Europa League campaigns.
The role of Sportmonks in Serie A predictions
If you want your Serie A coverage to stand out, Sportmonks brings cutting-edge data and predictive intelligence to help you stay ahead of the game. With real-time scores, standings, and match statistics, you can create engaging content for your fan site, betting platform, or developer project. Here are some benefits of using Sportmonks
Rich Serie A-specific data at your command
Sportmonks’ Serie A API is built for football lovers who want all the details. It offers a wide range of data, including live scores, historical match schedules, team standings, player and team statistics, line-ups, and formations. It even has odds and predictive insights, with everything delivered through a developer-friendly service. It’s a simple way to create content-rich experiences without having to search through multiple sources.
Advanced predictions via machine-learning models
At the heart of Sportmonks’ service is the Predictions API. Since 2017, its machine-learning models have been refined to offer precise forecasts across many different markets, such as match-winner, both-teams-to-score (BTTS), correct score, and over/under goals. These models analyse factors like team form, head-to-head history, and player contributions to create reliable probabilities for Serie A matches. Predictions are available a full 21 days before the game kicks off and are updated daily.
Value betting insights built-in
Beyond just match predictions, Sportmonks’ Value Bet model provides a data-driven edge. It compares bookmaker odds with the model’s own probabilities to flag potentially good betting opportunities. This model runs frequently and includes risk metrics, offering both transparency and discipline to betting strategies.
Trust through transparency and performance tracking
Sportmonks lets users check its predictive accuracy using key metrics. These include a hit ratio (how often the model gets the right outcome), log-loss (the quality of the probabilities), and an overall league predictability rating. This allows users to understand how reliable the predictions are for Serie A specifically.
Seamless integration for varied applications
Sportmonks is designed with developers in mind. Our documentation is clear, endpoints are robust, and integration is hassle-free. All predictive data, odds, league tables, and match information can be accessed within one unified API.
Who are the current favourites to win the Serie A title in 2025/26?
The season is already underway, with the first matches having been played on 23-24 August. Napoli, Inter Milan, and Juventus are the clear front-runners, but AC Milan and AS Roma are also in with a shout.
Market odds (outright winner)
These are the approximate odds and implied probabilities for each club to win the title.
– Napoli: +150, Implied Probability: 32-40%
– Inter Milan: +275, Implied Probability: 26%
– Juventus: +500, Implied Probability: 15-17%
– AC Milan: +500-550, Implied Probability: 13-15%
– AS Roma: +1000, Implied Probability: 8-9%
Napoli: Consistent contenders under Conte
Napoli are the reigning champions and are looking to defend their title.
– Squad changes and impact: Napoli focused on making smart, tactical upgrades rather than completely changing their squad. They’ve added Kevin De Bruyne on a free transfer and Noa Lang for €25 million, which has greatly strengthened their attack. They also added defensive depth with Sam Beukema and Miguel Gutiérrez, which fits with Antonio Conte’s balanced tactical style.
– Key players: Scott McTominay, the Serie A MVP from last season, remains a key part of Napoli’s midfield engine, now paired with the world-class quality of Kevin De Bruyne.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Napoli began the season with a solid 2-0 victory over Sassuolo. McTominay scored a header in the 17th minute, and De Bruyne sealed the win with a fantastic free-kick in the second half.
– Why they are contenders: Antonio Conte is one of the few top managers who stayed at their club, giving Napoli rare stability. This, combined with their squad depth and smart signings, puts them in a strong position for another title run.
Inter Milan: Power and potential amid transition
Inter Milan finished second last season and have made some key changes.
– Squad changes and impact: With new coach Cristian Chivu in charge, Inter made selective signings. They made Nicola Zalewski’s loan deal permanent and added young talent like Petar Sučić, Luis Henrique, and forward Ange-Yoan Bonny. These moves strengthen both their attack and midfield.
– Key players: Marcus Thuram, who scored two goals on the opening day, along with Lautaro Martínez and defender Alessandro Bastoni, gives the team a lot of firepower in both attack and defence.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Inter had an incredible start to the season, beating Torino 5-0. It was their biggest season opener since 1961, and it showed their serious intent for the campaign.
– Why they are contenders: Despite a change in manager, Inter’s core strength, squad depth, and attacking style keep them firmly in the title race, as long as Chivu can maintain consistency.
Juventus: Rebuilding with youth and structure
Juventus are looking to return to the top after several seasons of ups and downs.
– Squad changes and impact: Under new manager Igor Tudor, Juventus has focused on a youth-led rebuild. New additions like Jonathan David reflect this strategy.
– Key players: Jonathan David, along with Dusan Vlahović and young creative player Kenan Yıldız, are central to the team’s new attacking threat.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Juventus secured a comfortable 2-0 victory over Parma in their first match, driven by goals from David and Vlahović.
– Why they are contenders: Qualifying for the Champions League under Tudor has given the team positive momentum. A new-look attack and a focus on stability could make them a formidable force over the course of the season.
Other contenders: AC Milan and AS Roma
– AC Milan: With Massimiliano Allegri back as manager, and a midfield strengthened by Luka Modrić and Christian Pulisic, Milan are a quietly competitive side.
– AS Roma: Under manager Gian Piero Gasperini, Roma are aiming to disrupt the top four. With a youthful attack and Evan Ferguson emerging as a key player, they are considered a dangerous challenger.
Serie A dark horses to watch in 2025/26
As Serie A begins, certain clubs defy expectations. They aren’t among the title favourites but have the potential to disrupt the top teams. The DAZN panel and betting previews have highlighted Roma, Atalanta, Bologna, and the newly promoted Como as intriguing outsiders.
Market perspective & early signals
– According to DAZN previews, Roma, Fiorentina, and Como are among the most interesting dark horse candidates. Roma’s youth-driven rebuild under Gian Piero Gasperini has earned particular praise.
– The DAZN preview also highlights Atalanta’s transition under Ivan Juric as a key area to watch.
– Bologna, fresh from winning the Coppa Italia, has reinforced their team with experienced players like Ciro Immobile and Federico Bernardeschi, positioning themselves as underrated challengers.
– Betting markets show that newly promoted Como, who are backed by significant investment and coached by Cesc Fàbregas, are not just playing for survival. Their ambitions go much further.
Como: The ambitious promoted side
– Squad changes & impact: Under the management of Cesc Fàbregas, Como has spent heavily on new players. They’ve brought in Assane Diao, Maxence Caqueret, Ivan Smolčić, Mërgim Vojvoda, Iván Azón, and Anastasios Douvikas. They also signed Dele Alli, giving him a fresh start on a contract until June 2026. This investment suggests they are aiming for the title, not just to stay in the league.
– Key players: Dele Alli is seen as the creative brain of the team, Douvikas is their goal threat, and Caqueret is expected to control the midfield.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Como made a huge statement by beating AC Milan 2–1 at San Siro on the first matchday. Federico Bonazzoli scored with a fantastic overhead kick, and Emil Audero had a standout performance in goal. This result could define their season.
– Why they are contenders: Their financial backing, high-profile signings, and their first-game shock win show that Como is the most talked-about dark horse this season.
Bologna: Stability with scoring flair
– Squad changes & impact: After winning the Coppa Italia, Bologna added Ciro Immobile and Federico Bernardeschi to their squad. Both are very experienced players with a history of success in big games.
– Key players: Immobile is a proven goalscorer and Bernardeschi brings creativity to the attack, and both are expected to be leaders for the team.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Bologna started their season with a 1–0 loss to Roma at the Stadio Olimpico. This result might have dampened some of their dark horse talk, but their squad’s quality and recent cup win suggest they will still be competitive.
– Why they are contenders: Their recent cup win has boosted morale, and the addition of new attacking players makes Bologna a steady, underrated threat.
AS Roma: Youth-led resurgence
– Squad changes & impact: Roma, now led by Gian Piero Gasperini, are rebuilding with a focus on youth. Matías Soulé, a talented academy player, joins Evan Ferguson in what looks to be a promising young attack.
– Key players: Matías Soulé is considered Roma’s top Under-23 prospect for creativity, while Evan Ferguson is set to be a breakout star up front.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Roma began their campaign with a 1–0 victory over Bologna. Soulé was a constant threat in attack under Gasperini’s system.
– Why they are contenders: Their mix of youthful energy, tactical innovation from a proven manager, and a positive start marks Roma as a dark horse with a lot of potential.
Atalanta: Transition and tactical reset
– Squad changes & impact: Atalanta is in a new era under manager Ivan Juric, who has replaced Gian Piero Gasperini. Juric is known for a more defensive and solid style, which is a change from Gasperini’s high-intensity approach. This comes after the loss of their top scorer, Mateo Retegui.
– Key players: The new players brought in by Juric have yet to make a big impact, and the team’s style is still evolving.
– Matchday 1 analysis: Atalanta started their season with a 1–1 draw against newly-promoted Pisa. They were unable to find a winner despite creating plenty of chances, which suggests some early struggles as Juric implements his new, more pragmatic system.
– Why they are contenders: If Juric’s new approach works quickly, Atalanta’s well-known competitiveness and experience could lead to a surprisingly consistent season.
Use Sportmonks to stay ahead in Serie A predictions
Sportmonks gives fans, analysts, and developers powerful tools to accurately predict Serie A outcomes. Our football API provides real-time and historical data, while AI-driven insights help you make better decisions. Here’s how Sportmonks helps you stay ahead:
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– Real-time updates: Daily data updates, including injuries and line-ups, ensure your predictions are always current.
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– Practical applications: The data is ideal for various use cases, with tools like the Value Bet API to help you spot good opportunities.
Stay ahead in Serie A with Sportmonks
Napoli, Inter, and Juventus are all fighting for the title, so this season is already shaping up to be a thrilling one. To cover the action properly, you need more than just scores; you need reliable data. Sportmonks’ Football API provides live results, advanced statistics, and predictive insights for all 20 Serie A clubs, giving you an edge in analysis, betting, or fan engagement.
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