Who is the favourite to become Europa League champions based on Sportmonks data?

How Sportmonks uses key data metrics to predict the Europa League champion

Predicting the UEFA Europa League champion requires more than just intuition—data-driven insights are essential in identifying the strongest contenders. Sportmonks utilises key metrics such as team performance, squad depth, and defensive solidity to analyse which clubs have the best chance of lifting the trophy.

Team performance throughout the season

One of the most important indicators of success is consistent team performance. For example, Manchester United has demonstrated a high attacking efficiency, averaging a strong expected goals (xG) rate and creating a significant number of goal-scoring opportunities per match. Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt excels in possession-based football, frequently controlling over 60% of the ball, allowing them to dictate the tempo. Athletic Club, on the other hand, thrives on a high-pressing system, quickly regaining possession and capitalising on defensive errors to create chances.

The importance of squad depth

Winning a long tournament like the Europa League requires squad depth to handle the demands of multiple competitions. Tottenham Hotspur, for instance, has the luxury of rotating key players, ensuring freshness while maintaining quality across all competitions. Lazio, with its well-balanced squad, has managed to limit fatigue while staying competitive in both Serie A and European matches. Lyon, despite an inconsistent domestic campaign (sixth place), possesses experienced players capable of stepping up in decisive European fixtures.

Defensive solidity and tactical discipline

A strong defensive structure is often the difference between winning and losing knockout matches. Rangers FC, anchored by James Tavernier, has shown defensive resilience by maintaining a high tackle success rate and preventing opposition teams from creating clear-cut chances. Olympiacos, with their compact defensive setup, has been particularly effective at shutting down stronger attacking teams, keeping multiple clean sheets and ony conceding 3 goals throughout the Europa League season. Meanwhile, Lazio’s defensive line, led by Alessio Romagnoli, has shown significant improvement in limiting opponent xG (7.1), making them a tough team to break down. Only two teams conceded a lower xG being Real Sociedad (7.0) and Athletic Club (6.6).

Sportmonks’ data-driven approach goes beyond traditional stats, incorporating real-time updates on injuries, tactical adjustments, and player fatigue levels. These insights help predict who has the greatest chance of surviving the knockout rounds and ultimately securing the Europa League title.

Why versatility is key to winning the Europa League

The UEFA Europa League is one of the most unpredictable tournaments in European football. Unlike domestic leagues, where teams play a familiar set of opponents, the Europa League requires clubs to adapt to different playing styles and cultures from across the continent. Sportmonks data reveals that the most successful teams are those that demonstrate tactical versatility, adjusting their approach depending on the opposition and the stage of the competition.

Tactical flexibility as a winning factor

Versatility is a key strength for clubs still in contention for the Europa League title. For instance, Manchester United has relied on their ability to switch between a high-pressing system and a counter-attacking approach, depending on the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses. Tottenham Hotspur, another major contender, has showcased their ability to play both possession-based football and a more direct attacking style, making them difficult to predict.

Meanwhile, Lazio thrives on a structured defensive approach, but when needed, they can transition into a fast-paced attacking team, particularly against opponents who dominate possession. Athletic Club has adopted a similar philosophy, using their physical midfield to disrupt opposition build-ups while capitalising on quick counterattacks.

The role of adaptability in knockout football

Unlike league play, where consistency over all matches is key, the Europa League is decided by high-pressure knockout rounds. Teams that can adjust their tactics mid-game often have a competitive edge. Eintracht Frankfurt, for example, has demonstrated an ability to switch between a high-pressing game and a low defensive block, depending on the scoreline and opponent. Olympique Lyonnais, has used in-game tactical tweaks to gain crucial advantages in European matches.

Sportmonks’ data highlights how tactical adaptability increases a team’s chances of success. Metrics such as possession recovery rates, pressing efficiency, and counter-attacking effectiveness provide valuable insights into how flexible teams are in different match scenarios. Ultimately, the ability to adjust to various tactical challenges can be the difference between Europa League glory and an early exit.

What past Europa League champions teach us

Sportmonks’ historical data analysis reveals patterns among past Europa League champions, providing insights into what it takes to win the competition. From Sevilla’s dominance to recent triumphs by Eintracht Frankfurt, key metrics such as possession control, pressing efficiency, and expected goals (xG) have been consistent indicators of success. These patterns can help identify which current contenders have the attributes of past winners.

Possession-based dominance and tactical adaptability

One of the most successful Europa League teams in history is Sevilla, with their multiple title wins built on possession-heavy football and clinical finishing. A similar approach has been adopted by Manchester United, who rely on controlling the ball and dictating play through midfield dominance. Eintracht Frankfurt’s 2021-22 triumph was another example of a team that adapted tactically throughout the tournament, adjusting their game plan depending on their opponent’s weaknesses.

Pressing efficiency and defensive solidity

Another common trait among past champions is their ability to press aggressively and recover possession quickly. Atletico Madrid’s past Europa League victories were built on high pressing and compact defensive structures, forcing opponents into mistakes. Lazio and Athletic Club share similar defensive characteristics, excelling at disrupting opposition build-ups while maintaining a strong defensive shape. Olympique Lyonnais, has shown flashes of this approach in key European fixtures.

Fan influence and home advantage in the fight for the cup

In the UEFA Europa League, home advantage can be a decisive factor in determining which teams progress deep into the tournament. Despite domestic leagues being fairly familiar to teams, home and away still play an important role. European fixtures require clubs to adapt to hostile away atmospheres and intense travel schedules. Sportmonks’ data highlights that clubs with strong home records often have a significant edge, especially in high-pressure knockout rounds.

The power of home support

Certain clubs thrive in front of their passionate supporters. Athletic Club’s San Mamés is renowned for its electrifying atmosphere, making it one of the most intimidating venues in European football. Similarly, Rangers’ Ibrox Stadium provides a fortress-like advantage, with the Scottish giants boasting an impressive home winning percentage in European competitions. Olympiacos, playing at the fiercely passionate Karaiskakis Stadium, has historically used home advantage to upset stronger opposition, often dominating xG and possession stats in front of their fans. Also, the Turkish clubs like Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray have an amazing atmosphere in their home stadiums. And don’t underestimate the likes of the home crowd of Ajax and FC Twente.

Balancing home and away form

Sportmonks data also tracks away performances, revealing that some teams excel both home and away, making them more resilient contenders. Athletic Club, Tottenham, Lazio, Roma, Galatasaray, AZ, Manchester United, Frankfurt and Elfsborg all collected 10 or more points in their home games. While in the away matches not a single team was able to collect over 9 points. Lazio gained 9 points in away matches, while the number to were Lyon and Manchester United with 8 points. FC Twente (mentioned above to have a great home crowd) collected more points in their away matches, but they faced the likes of Manchester United, Lazio, Besiktas, and St. Gilloise at their homeground. Three of them proceeded to the next round.

Understanding the balance between home and away performances is key to predicting Europa League success. Teams that can leverage their home advantage while securing points away often have the best shot at lifting the trophy.

The role of consistency in long-term Cup challenges

In the UEFA Europa League, consistency is one of the most important factors in determining a team’s title-winning potential. Unlike domestic leagues, where a poor performance can be recovered over a long season, the Europa League is less forgiving—one bad match can mean elimination. Sportmonks data reveals that clubs capable of maintaining long unbeaten runs and bouncing back quickly from setbacks are more likely to go deep into the tournament.

Sustained form as a predictor of success

Past champions have demonstrated that maintaining stability across all rounds is crucial. Eintracht Frankfurt’s 2021-22 triumph was built on an unbeaten Europa League campaign, where they consistently avoided costly defeats. Similarly, Sevilla’s multiple title wins showcase how staying defensively solid and taking advantage of winning streaks makes the difference between falling short and lifting the trophy.

This season, Manchester United and Lazio have shown steady performances in Europe, making them strong contenders. Tottenham Hotspur, meanwhile, has had fluctuating results, meaning their title credentials will depend on their ability to string together victories in the knockout stages.

Recovering from setbacks

Another key factor tracked by Sportmonks’ predictive models is how quickly a team recovers from a setback. Clubs that immediately respond to losses with a win have a psychological and tactical edge. Lyon and Roma, for example, have shown resilience after defeats, using tactical adjustments to stay in the race. However, teams like Olympiacos and Rangers must prove they can handle pressure after setbacks if they want to challenge for the title.

Sportmonks data highlights momentum as a decisive element in predicting Europa League success. The teams that can maintain unbeaten streaks, recover quickly from defeats, and capitalize on winning momentum will stand the best chance of securing the trophy.

So who is the actual favourite?

Based on the information above you can try to decide that for yourself. With the xG performance of a couple of clubs, the home crowd, tactical adjustments and so on there are a few cases to be made for clubs like Ajax, Tottenham Hotspur, Lyon, Manchester United.

Bet365 odds

According to Bet365, Manchester United is the favourite with an odd of 5.50. Tottenham has an odd of 6.00, Athletic Bilbao has an odd of 6.50, Lazio 8.00, Eitracht Frankfurt 11.00, Real Sociedad 13.00, Lyon 17.00, AS Roma 17.00, Galatasaray 17.0, Olympiacos 19.00, Ajax 21.00, Fernerbahce 21.00, FC Porto 26.00, Rangers 41.00, Anderlecht 51.00. The other teams have an odd of 151.00 or higher.

Eventhough we have seen big clubs perfoming below expectations we are talking about football in one of the biggest European Competitions. We are talking about one of the biggest European Trophies a team can earn. Teams from all over Europe playing in the biggest leagues (Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Superlig, and more) are competing. We have two giant English clubs, no clubs with a perfect record of winning every match. At Sportmonks we are rooting for the underdog for the Europa League.

Your data-driven edge in the Europa League title race

The UEFA Europa League is one of the most unpredictable competitions in European football. To stay ahead of the game, leverage Sportmonks’ advanced data analytics to gain a competitive edge. Whether you’re a football fan, bettor, or analyst, Sportmonks provides real-time insights, predictive metrics, and historical trends to help you make informed decisions.

Stay updated on team performance, key player updates, and tactical shifts throughout the tournament. From Manchester United’s attacking efficiency to Lazio’s defensive strength, Sportmonks’ data reveals which teams are primed for success and which underdogs might cause an upset.

Get ahead with Sportmonks today by exploring detailed data on your favourite Europa League teams. Dive into the stats, follow live updates, and make data-driven predictions for the 2024/25 season and beyond.