Contents
Definition and key elements
A big chance is typically characterised by:
– Location and scenario: It usually involves a one-on-one situation with the goalkeeper or a shot taken from very close range.
– Clear path: The ball has a clear path to the goal.
– Low pressure: The shooter faces low to moderate pressure from defenders, meaning minimal obstruction.
– Penalties: According to standard event definitions, penalties are always classified as big chances because of their inherently high expected scoring probability.
This definition essentially sets a boundary, identifying opportunities of a significantly higher quality than a typical shot attempt.
Why the big chance concept is essential
A big chance holds significant value in football analysis because it helps analysts and coaches look past simple numbers to understand the true quality and threat of a team’s attack.
It measures attacking threat precisely
A big chance highlights an opportunity that has a very high probability of ending in a goal, not just any hopeful shot. This means teams that manage to generate a large number of these specific chances are inherently more dangerous offensively.
It separates creation from finishing
This concept allows you to clearly separate two different skills:
– Creation: The ability to generate high-quality opportunities.
– Conversion: The ability to score when the opportunity arises.
When a team creates many big chances but fails to score from them (low conversion), it suggests problems with finishing or shot execution. Conversely, a team converting a high percentage signals a clinical and highly effective attack.
It offers deeper insight beyond raw totals
Traditional statistics like total shots taken or total goals scored often don’t tell the full story. Big chances help bridge the gap between the quantity of opportunity and the quality of that opportunity.
– For a player, tracking how many big chances they get (or create) gives a much sharper idea of their true threat and value.
– For teams, the number of big chances created and conceded points directly to the underlying strengths and weaknesses of their tactics.
It is crucial for strategy and scouting
Because big chances reflect the most valuable opportunities, they are essential when analysing players or planning tactics:
– For a striker: How efficient are they? How many big chances do they convert?
– For a creator: How often do they create a truly high-quality big chance for their teammates?
– For a coach: Is the team’s structure and attack successfully setting up the conditions for big chances? If not, the tactic may need changing.
It is an indicator of sustainable performance
While goals and wins are the final results, big chances serve as predictive indicators of whether a team’s performance is sustainable.
A team that consistently creates a high volume of big chances may be “due” for better results and more goals, even if their finishing is temporarily poor. Conversely, a team that rarely creates them is unlikely to maintain a high scoring rate in the long run.
Relation to other metrics
To perform a proper analysis, you must understand how the big chance concept interacts with other key statistical metrics in football.
Shots and shot quality
– Shots vs. big chances: A team might take a large number of shots, but only a small portion of those shots will actually be high-quality enough to be labelled a Big Chance. For instance, a team firing 20 shots with only 2 big chances is far less dangerous than a team with 10 shots and 5 Big Chances. The Big Chance count reveals the true threat level, while the total shots count reveals volume.
– Shots on target: While ‘shots on target’ measures the accuracy of a shot, Big Chances measure the quality of the opportunity itself, regardless of whether the shot hits the target or not.
Expected goals (xG)
– Complementary metrics: Big Chances generally have high Expected goals (xG) values because they are, by definition, high-probability scoring situations.
– Key distinction: xG is a continuous, statistical model that calculates the probability of every shot turning into a goal (e.g., 0.35 xG). The big chance concept, however, is a categorical tag used to quickly identify discrete, top-tier opportunities.
– Usage: Analysts use xG to quantify the total aggregate scoring likelihood over a match, and they use big chances to identify the moments that were, theoretically, the easiest to score.
Creative metrics
– Chances created: This metric tracks passes or moves that lead to any shot attempt. Big chances created tracks only those passes or moves that lead to a high-probability shot. This is the metric that credits the creative player for setting up the best opportunity.
Finishing metrics
– Big chances missed & conversion rate: The flip-side of creating a big chance is the finish. If a team creates many big chances but converts few of them, it strongly suggests a finishing issue or a lack of composure in the final moments. High conversion, conversely, signals strong efficiency.
Contextual metrics
– Attack momentum and pressure: Metrics that track sustained attacking pressure (like ‘attack momentum’) help explain why big chances arise. A team that dominates the attack and maintains high pressure is much more likely to naturally generate high-quality scoring opportunities.
Limitations and risks of big chance analysis
While the concept of a big chance is highly valuable, it is not perfect. There are several important risks and limitations you must remember when using this metric.
Subjectivity and bias in data
– Human judgement: The biggest limitation is subjectivity. The big chance label is often assigned by human coders watching the match. Deciding whether a chance “should reasonably be expected to score” is ultimately a judgement call, which can introduce potential bias.
– Outcome bias: There is a risk of post-match bias. If a chance results in a goal, a coder might be more likely to label it a big chance retrospectively. If the same chance is missed, they might be more likely to downgrade it. This can skew the data.
– Inconsistent definitions: Not every league or data provider uses the exact same criteria for what qualifies as a big chance. This makes direct comparisons across different leagues or competitions less reliable.
Incomplete context
– Isolation risk: Big Chances filter for opportunity quality, but they do not account for all the surrounding details. Relying solely on the count can lead to misleading conclusions because the metric doesn’t fully capture:
– Goalkeeper quality: Did an exceptional save reduce the conversion rate?
– Defensive pressure: Was the player more tightly marked than the coder saw?
– Match state: Was the team already leading 3-0, or were they desperately chasing an equaliser?
– Limited predictive value: Generating many big chances is a sign of great attacking play, but it does not guarantee goals. Finishing skill, shot placement, and goalkeeper performance are external factors that determine the final outcome. A team can create many big chances and still lose the match.
Application in performance and analytics
A big chance is used extensively across performance analysis, scouting, and tactical work. Here is how this data is applied and how we use it at Sportmonks.
Team and match performance
Analysts use big chance data to get a clearer picture of a team’s true quality:
– Attacking quality: A high number of big chances created confirms that the team has effective final-third play and a real attacking threat.
– Defensive vulnerability: A high number of big chances conceded points directly to defensive weaknesses, such as slow transitions or poor structure.
– Beyond the score: This data explains why a result occurred. A team might lose 1-0 but created five big chances, suggesting the tactical plan was sound, but the finishing was poor.
– Visual guidance: Using big chance maps (visual representations of where these opportunities happened) helps coaches identify the exact areas on the pitch where their strategy is either working or failing.
Player evaluation and scouting
Big chance metrics are vital for assessing a player’s genuine value:
– For attackers: Scouts track how many big chances a player receives per 90 minutes and what their conversion rate is. Players who consistently convert these chances offer high finishing value.
– For creators: It highlights a player’s quality as a playmaker, showing how often they generate a genuinely high-quality opportunity for a teammate.
– Recruitment insight: Analysing big chance involvement helps recruiters decide: Is the player consistently getting into the right positions, or are they relying on difficult, low-probability shots?
Tactical insights and coaching
Coaches use this data to refine structure and practice:
– Attacking strategy: Coaches evaluate if their attacking formation is producing high-quality chances or just a high volume of low-threat shots. This guides decisions on build-up patterns and penetration strategy.
– Defensive flaws: Tracking big chances conceded helps identify structural issues in the defence, such as allowing too much space during transitions or poor positioning in one-on-one situations.
Sportmonks’ perspective & tagging implementation
At Sportmonks, we fully integrate big chances into our data services. Here is our approach and how it delivers extra value to our clients:
How we handle big chance data
– Distinct event tagging: We tag big chances as a specific event in our football event-data feed. That means for every match we cover, we record not just the shot, but whether that opportunity met our criteria (location, defender pressure, one-on-one status, assist context).
– Core metrics provided: Our feed offers clients essential metrics derived from that tag:
– Big chances created (by a team or player)
– Big chances conceded (by the opposition)
– Conversion rate (Goals ÷ Big Chances)
– Value for clients (for teams and for players)
– For teams: Clubs analysing their own or rival squads can quickly answer: “Is this team generating real chances we’d expect them to score from?” or “Are we conceding high-probability chances that we should limit?” This enables sharper performance reviews, tactical refinement and recruitment planning.
– For players: When assessing individual players, we allow users to ask: “Is this player consistently getting into or creating high-probability scoring positions?” or “What’s their conversion rate once they have a Big Chance?” That helps in scouting, valuing forwards or creators, and tracking development over time.
– Competitive edge: Because clients can filter datasets by our big chance data, compare across competitions, and build dashboards that focus entirely on opportunity quality, they gain a strategic advantage, no longer reliant just on volume of shots or goals.
Measure true attacking quality with Sportmonks big chance data
At Sportmonks, we tag and deliver big chance data directly through our Football API, covering big chances created, conceded, and conversion rates across 2,300+ leagues. This lets you measure attacking threat, finishing efficiency, and defensive vulnerability with precision.
For clubs and analysts, it means understanding whether a team’s tactics are generating truly high-quality opportunities. For scouts, it highlights which players consistently create or convert the best chances. For developers and data teams, it’s a foundation for dashboards and predictive models that go beyond basic goals and shots.
Start your free trial today and turn Sportmonks’ big chance data into real attacking insight.
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