Contents
Data-driven Predictions
People assume that the most prominent attacking players will always be favoured in our data-driven predictions because they score a lot and give the most assists. But that is not the case. All data included in the API is considered. For example, defending teams and players’ statistics are also essential to predict a match. We have created an AI prediction model that has been trained based on many matches.
The Prediction API accurately predicts the outcomes of future football matches, considering various factors such as team form, player injuries, head-to-head records, and more. We also incorporate the player contribution model, which further enhances the accuracy of the predictions:
“By analysing the performance of individual players and their impact on the team, we can better understand how they’ll contribute to the match’s final outcome. This model considers various metrics such as the player’s recent form, position, and contribution to the team’s overall performance.”
“Yes, I want to increase the chances of beating bookmakers!”
Alright, let’s find out how the API can help you predict one of the biggest rivalries in football.
As you know, APIs can be complex, so we need to investigate to ensure you can use the API’s endless options to make your predictions more secure.
Introduction to El Clásico and the role of data in football
El Clásico, the fierce rivalry between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, is one of football’s most iconic, widely anticipated, and appreciated matchups. For decades, their legendary clashes have captivated millions of fans, transcending the boundaries of the sport and becoming a classic matchup. The rivalry embodies the competitive spirit of football and a rich history of political, regional, and social undertones that make each encounter a spectacle in its own right. The match is always intense, and emotions (of fans, players and coaches) are at their maximum. Besides that, these teams are always evenly matched, making it even more difficult to split the two sides and predict the match’s outcome.
As football has evolved in recent years, so has the significance of data in understanding and predicting the outcomes of high-profile games like El Clásico. Match analysis and predictive insights have become key in preparing for such contests, with teams, analysts, and fans turning to data-driven approaches to evaluate team performance and forecast results. From tracking player movements to analysing tactical strategies, data plays a pivotal role in providing a deeper understanding of the game. Consider the increase of expected goals (xG) usage in football analysis, scouting, etc.
Advanced football data analytics now form the backbone of modern football analysis. Sportmonks’ data delivers comprehensive insights that go beyond surface-level statistics. By offering enhanced views into match outcomes, team dynamics, and individual player performance, Sportmonks bridges the gap between the storied narratives of this historic rivalry and the precision of data-driven analysis. With real-time stats and predictive tools, Sportmonks empowers stakeholders to combine the weight of history with cutting-edge insights, delivering an unparalleled view of El Clásico.
A historic rivalry in numbers
El Clásico has been around for ages now. The two biggest clubs in La Liga face each other in the most anticipated matchup in La Liga (maybe even in the world). This rivalry is more than football alone. It represents a tension between the Capitol of Spain and a region that doesn’t want to be part of Spain. Political ideologies, cultural tensions, and regional identities made this match classic. Both of the teams have had incredibly successful periods and performances. Think about the record number of Champions League titles Real Madrid has earned or the Xavi, Messi, Iniesta era in which they dominated with the best football ever seen at that time (Tiki-Taka). The first official El Clásico match occurred in a Spanish Cup competition on May 13, 1902. However, it wasn’t until the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) and the subsequent dictatorship of Francisco Franco that the rivalry began to take on its deep political dimensions. Under Franco’s regime, Madrid came to symbolise the central government. At the same time, Barcelona, with its strong Catalan identity and resistance to Franco’s authoritarianism, became a symbol of regional defiance and cultural pride.
On the field, the rivalry gained global prominence due to the consistent excellence of both clubs. Legendary players such as Alfredo Di Stéfano, Raul, Johan Cruyff, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, and Luís Figo shaped the fixture’s history. The passion, skill, and stakes in El Clásico have made it one of the most eagerly anticipated events in world football, transcending the sport itself.
At the time of writing, it seems that Real Madrid and FC Barcelona will be in a fight for the title once more. Real Madrid is placed second with 21 points after nine rounds of play, while FC Barcelona is ranked first with 24 points. Not only have these two teams had many heated battles, but they also had two of the greatest players of all time in their respective squads (Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo), and they are fighting for every single record there is in football, and have been part of the GOAT-debate for a long time now. Besides these incredible players, most other players included in the GOAT debate have been playing for at least one of these clubs. Think about Maradona, Cruyff, Zidane, Ronaldo (R9) and so on.
Nine teams have been crowned champions of La Liga. Real Madrid is the club with the most championship titles (36!), just like they are the Champions League record winners. FC Barcelona comes in second with 27 La Liga titles. Atlético Madrid finishes in the top three with 11 league titles.
Lionel Messi is the all-time top scorer in La Liga, with 474 goals scored in 520 appearances (ratio 0.91). Ronaldo came in second, with 311 goals scored in 292 appearances (Ratio 1.07).
The Ballon d’Or is an individual price for the best player in a specific year. The first edition of this special price was awarded in 1956. At the time of writing, eight winners of the Ballon d’Or played for Real Madrid and six for FC Barcelona. Both teams had the winner of the Ballon d’Or in their squads twelve times. Real Madrid have a good chance at winning another one with Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Júnior on the list of nominees for the 2024 edition (28-10-2024) and belonging to the top three favourites. Dani Carvajal, Toni Kroos, Kylian Mbappé, Antonio Rüdiger and Federico Valverde have also been nominated. For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo have been Nominated. Interesting side note: Lionel Messi is the player winning the most Ballon d’Ors with eight wins. Ronaldo won five Ballon d’Ors and is number two in this contest.
As you can see, the two teams battle on many different podiums, not only in the different leagues (La Liga, Copa Del Rey, and Champions League) but also in battles for records for teams and players.
It’s pretty bizarre that since the 2004/2005 season, the home team hasn’t seemed to have a “home advantage”. In both cases (Real Madrid at home and FC Barcelona at home), the highest percentage of wins goes to the away team.
Real Madrid at Home:
FC Barcelona at Home:
So, does the home advantage count at all in El Clásico? You can’t rely on the sentiment, and you can’t rely on the home crowd to win El Clásico for you. This game is simply different. Ultimately, both teams seem evenly matched over the last twenty years.
Total result since 2004/2005 season:
One of El Clásico’s highlights was the battle for the Champions League Semi-final in 2010/2011. The match in Barcelona (Camp Nou) was the first match of this two-part matchup. In the second half, Pedro netted his fourth goal of this Champions League edition. This was the 1-0 after an assist given by Andrés Iniesta in the 54th minute. Ten minutes later, Marcelo scored second in the tournament. The assist was given by Ángel Di María. To give you an idea of the teams that battled for the spot in the final:
Puyol, Dani Alves, Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, Xavi, Messi, Higuaín, C. Ronaldo, Kaká, Xabi Alonso, and Casillas were on the pitch along with a couple of other old heroes.
The second game took place in Madrid (Santiago Bernabéu). Another epic clash with a red card for the goalkeeper from Barcelona (José Manuel Pinto) in the first half’s extra time. Luckily for Barcelona, he was on the bench so that they could continue with eleven players on the pitch. Excellent detail; Mesut Özil, Pepe, and Ramos were playing for Real Madrid this time. For Barcelona, Keita and Villa were the changes in the lineup. In the end, FC Barcelona came out on top with two goals from Lionel Messi. He scored in the 76th minute after a cross from Ibrahim Affelay and in the 87th minute after a pass from Sergio Busquets. The 0-2 victory was enough to get to the final, where Manchester United would be the opponent. The goals of Pedro, Messi, and Villa were enough to win 3-1 against Sir Alex Ferguson’s side.
Interestingly enough, there have been a few close calls, but also several walks of shame for both parties. Think about Real Madrid’s 4-1 and 4-0 wins in the 2023/2024 and 2022/2023 seasons, or Barcelona’s 5-1 win in 2018/2019 and the 0-4 away win in 2015/2016. Most goals were scored in the 2008/2009 Clásico when Barcelona won their away win with a total score of 2-6. In this matchup, players like Henry, Eto’o, Touré, Cannavaro, Heinze, and Raul were on the field. More about the last mentioned match after a couple of videos.
Sunday 14-01-2024
Vinicius Júnior was able to score three goals in one half. The final of the Supercopa was won with 4-1 versus FC Barcelona. An El Clásico Vinicius won’t forget anytime soon.
Sunday 23-03-2014
Lionel Messi came in clutch for FC Barcelona. After 24 minutes, Real Madrid was ahead 2-1. But Messi decided that he didn’t want to lose today. He scored the 2-2 in the 42nd minute. Cristiano Ronaldo made sure Real Madrid was in the lead one more time (3-2) in the 55th minute. After that, Messi wanted to outscore Ronaldo, so he scored the 3-3 and 3-4 in the 65th and 84th minute to give Barcelona the win.
Sunday 17-11-2019
Ronaldinho. Even Real Madrid fans gave a standing ovation to the Brazilian attacker. I don’t have to say anything else. Feel free to watch it yourself to relive this moment (even as a Real Madrid fan).
Saturday 02-05-2009
The match that literally changed football. The false 9 was introduced in Barcelona. No, Pep didn’t invent this position, but this match with Messi as the false 9 changed not only the game against Madrid but football as a whole. He assisted one goal and scored twice. This was a tactic to win the duel in midfield. And clearly, Barcelona did just that, with Xavi giving four assists as well.
Below, you will find a few videos showcasing highlights of the battles of El Clásico.
Respectful rivalry
So, there is all this rivalry, all this kicking, crying, annoying behaviour on both sides. And then there is Puyol. One of the few players respected by both sides and in this short clip, you will see why:
Tactical decisions
Tactical decisions can make the big difference between winning and losing El Clásico. One of the best examples is the 2nd of May 2009 game. Pep Guardiola decided Messi wasn’t going to play in his usual position. People still describe this tactical change as the reason Barcelona “destroyed” Real Madrid. This match ended in a 2-6 win for FC Barcelona, and the main reason was that Lionel Messi played as a “False 9”, dropping in midfield positions.
The power of real-time data in shaping El Clásico predictions
Ever placed a bet while a few seconds later you saw a goal or a red card that destroyed this bet straight away? This could have been prevented. Did you know that “live” television broadcasting has a major delay when broadcasting live football matches? Sportmonks real-time data is up to 30 seconds faster than live TV!
Real-time data will transform the way you analyse and predict El Clásico. You no longer have to trust your guts, home advantage, or simple statistics like shots, attacks and possession. And the most important thing is that you will no longer be dependent on delayed television broadcasting.
Sometimes, a small detail can change a game’s outcome; sometimes, an injury or goal can change things. Real-time data is invaluable. What do you think of the outcome of the Manchester City – Arsenal game? Rodri got injured after 21 minutes. He is one of the strongholds in Pep Guardiola’s squad. When, for example, Pedri or Bellingham gets injured, one of the sides in El Clásico could potentially break. So, tactical changes in the formation after substitutions can have a major influence, too. The good thing is that we adjust the formations during live games so you can decide if these tactical changes influence your bets!
Using Sportmonks’ AI and advanced Metrics
With the Sportmonks Football API and Predictions API you will be able to do deeper analysis of games. Before AND during a game. “Analysing a game beforehand?” Besides offering Head-2-Head data we also offer deep insights with our Prediction API. The AI included in this API is trained by millions of matches.
Our model delivers precise predictions for upcoming matches by leveraging cutting-edge machine-learning algorithms and a vast database of historical football data. It factors in key variables like team momentum, injury reports, head-to-head statistics, and more.
Additionally, we integrate a player contribution analysis, elevating our forecasts’ accuracy even further. This approach evaluates individual player performances and their influence on the team’s success, offering more profound insights into their potential impact on match outcomes. The model considers several vital metrics, including recent player form, positional role, and overall contributions to team dynamics.
Add to the Prediction API the Expected Goals Metrics and Pressure Index, and you have a complete set of tools to analyse El Clásico on a professional level. Statistics like possession, Passing Accuracy, shots, and so on do help. However, they are simply not enough to predict a match as big and intense as El Clásico.
The evolution of predictive models in football has transformed drastically over the years, thanks to advancements in machine learning and data analytics. In the past, football predictions were primarily based on subjective analysis and basic statistics. However, with the rise of machine learning algorithms, models have become far more sophisticated. These models now consider various dynamic variables, such as a player’s form, recent match performances, team injuries, and historical head-to-head results. This shift from static data to complex, real-time inputs has revolutionised predictions, delivering higher accuracy and insight.
Modern predictive models process vast datasets, training on historical and live data to identify patterns and trends that may go unnoticed by traditional methods. Factors like team formations, player fitness, and even psychological elements can now be analysed, allowing these models to provide a more nuanced understanding of likely outcomes. As the technology evolves, football predictions are becoming increasingly reliable, helping fans, analysts, scouts, and betting markets make more informed decisions based on real-time intelligence and predictive analytics.
Let’s have a look at the last El Clásico in Madrid. Real Madrid – FC Barcelona in La Liga April 21 2024, Fixture ID: 18850124. We will find out what the Prediction API had to say about this matchup and what actually happened.
"id": 12529052,
"fixture_id": 18850124,
"predictions": {
"yes": 56.6,
"no": 43.4
},
"type_id": 231,
"type": {
"id": 231,
"name": "Both Teams To Score Probability",
"code": "both-teams-to-score-probability",
"developer_name": "BTTS_PROBABILITY",
"model_type": "prediction",
"stat_group": null
The match ended in 3-2 for Real Madrid. As you can see the prediction for both teams to score was correct.
"id": 12528961,
"fixture_id": 18850124,
"predictions": {
"yes": 42.01,
"no": 46.57,
"equal": 11.42
},
"type_id": 1687,
"type": {
"id": 1687,
"name": "Corners Over/Under 9 Probability",
"code": "corners-over-under-9-probability",
"developer_name": "CORNERS_OVER_UNDER_9_PROBABILITY",
"model_type": "prediction",
"stat_group": null
Well, with two corners for Madrid and eighth for Barcelona, the Prediction API was wrong here. Because it is actually over nine corners. Why do I show this? It is a probability. Even if the chances are slim, it can still happen. Same as with Expected Goals. Top strikers will have shots for open goal with an xG of 0,95 and still miss. The Predicton API is here to help narrow down your misses on your bets.
Now, the moment you all have been waiting for, was the proper winner predicted?
"id": 12529058,
"fixture_id": 18850124,
"predictions": {
"home": 51.16,
"away": 24.22,
"draw": 24.62
},
"type_id": 237,
"type": {
"id": 237,
"name": "Fulltime Result Probability",
"code": "fulltime-result-probability",
"developer_name": "FULLTIME_RESULT_PROBABILITY",
"model_type": "prediction",
"stat_group": null
Yes, the match ended in a 3-2 win for Real Madrid. Based on the prediction model, the home team was given the highest chance of winning.
Let’s go a bit further back. Real Madrid – FC Barcelona 16th of October 2022 Fixture ID: 18545173.
"id": 4091663,
"fixture_id": 18545173,
"predictions": {
"home": 39.578,
"away": 35.339,
"draw": 25.078
},
"type_id": 237,
"type": {
"id": 237,
"name": "Fulltime Result Probability",
"code": "fulltime-result-probability",
"developer_name": "FULLTIME_RESULT_PROBABILITY",
"model_type": "prediction",
"stat_group": null
The prediction API gave the highest chance to a winner, which was most likely to be Real Madrid. The end result was a 3-1 victory for Real Madrid.
"id": 4091665,
"fixture_id": 18545173,
"predictions": {
"yes": 57.32,
"no": 42.68
},
"type_id": 231,
"type": {
"id": 231,
"name": "Both Teams To Score Probability",
"code": "both-teams-to-score-probability",
"developer_name": "BTTS_PROBABILITY",
"model_type": "prediction",
Key players to watch based on data insights
El Clásico has always been a stage where individual brilliance can turn the course of the match. This season, data-driven insights highlight key players likely to influence the outcome. Vinícius Júnior’s explosive pace and dribbling ability make him a constant threat on the left wing for Real Madrid. He has had an impressive number of successful dribbles and goal involvements in recent games. His ability to create chances and stretch defences could be critical in breaking down Barcelona’s backline.
Dani Olmo stands out as a creative force in midfield on the Barcelona side. Known for his vision and passing accuracy, Olmo consistently creates scoring opportunities, contributing with assists and key passes. His ability to dictate play and link up with forwards like Lamine Yamal will be pivotal in Barcelona’s quest for midfield dominance.
Jude Bellingham, meanwhile, has been a revelation for Real Madrid, with his goal-scoring prowess and defensive work rate in midfield. His ability to break into the box and win tackles gives Madrid an all-round threat. In contrast, Lamine Yamal’s youthful energy and technical skill make him a wildcard, capable of unsettling even the best defences.
Our data reveals interesting head-to-head stats from previous encounters, showing Bellingham’s midfield duels against Olmo as a key battle. At the same time, Vinícius’ success against Barcelona’s fullbacks could decide Madrid’s attacking fortunes. Heatmaps and performance charts underscore how these players impact specific zones, like Vinícius on the wings, Olmo and Bellingham in the midfield, and Yamal in the attacking third. Their performances could be crucial in determining the flow and result of this El Clásico. So, let’s hope Vinícius and Olmo will be back before the kickoff of this El Clásico.
How Sportmonks data provides an edge in betting and fantasy Football
So, how do you actually gain the advantage? You have all the data you need to create the best squad for your fantasy competition. You can make some extra calculations yourself (for example, find out how many assists and goals a player has made and what the average money spent per goal contribution is for the (fantasy) money you are investing. It is almost like the movie “Moneyball”. You buy the players based on the data and statistics, not your gut feeling. There are facts behind everything you decide in your fantasy squad building.
Not only do we offer predictions before the match starts, but we also show you live odds when matches are in play. Again, we are faster than live television, so make sure you are up-to-date when you are placing your bets and go all in. Knowing the live odds while seeing real-time data, such as statistics, events, trends, and more, is a real game changer.
Have a look at Oddsmonks. This page shows all the odds, statistics and more. It doesn’t use the predictions yet, but it will soon.
The dynamics of a game can change based on a card, an injury, and momentum. Just like the dynamics of a game, the odds will also change based on these factors. So, if you want to bet on a live game, do it wisely! Use live data instead of watching TV with a 30-second (extra) delay.
Injuries: If a key player like Vinícius Júnior or Lamine Yamal gets injured during a match, the odds of their team winning could shift dramatically. An injury to a star forward may lower the expected goals for that team, leading to better odds for the opposing side.
Red Cards: A red card can significantly alter the dynamics of the game. For instance, if Barcelona goes down to 10 men, the live odds for a Real Madrid victory may suddenly become more favourable. Real-time data allows sportsbooks to immediately reflect these changes in the odds, allowing bettors to react quickly.
Goals and Game Momentum: When a goal is scored, the odds for the match outcome adjust instantly. Bettors tracking live data can make smarter decisions, whether betting on a comeback or a high-scoring game, based on the current tempo and expected goals metrics provided in real-time.
You might wonder, “Okay, that sounds good. Lots of promises real-time data. But how good are your predictions?” That’s a good question. Don’t worry; I will share some details as we keep track of our results within the API itself. Yes, the AI checks its predictions for a couple of markets. Please see the results for yourself. You can even see if the results have improved or deteriorated.
"id": 618,
"league_id": 564,
"type_id": 243,
"data": {
"fulltime_result": "high",
"away_over_under_0_5": "high",
"away_over_under_1_5": "high",
"both_teams_to_score": "medium",
"team_to_score_first": "high",
"home_over_under_0_5": "high",
"home_over_under_1_5": "high",
"over_under_1_5": "medium",
"over_under_2_5": "good",
"over_under_3_5": "good",
"correct_score": "high",
"ht_ft": "high",
"fulltime_result_1st_half": "good"
https://api.sportmonks.com/v3/football/predictions/predictability/leagues/564?api_token=
Just so you know that this is fair, there are leagues that have poor instead of medium and good performance of the AI. But for the La Liga, you can see we have booked some amazing results.
Who’s the Favourite for the next El Clásico?
Alright, now the answer to the question you have all been waiting for. Who is the favourite for this El Clásico? Let’s have a look at some of the crucial factors.
La Liga and Champions League form
Real Madrid is in second place with 21 points. They didn’t lose in La Liga but shared the points with their opponent three times in nine matches. Having scored 19 times and conceded six goals, their goal difference is +13. Real Madrid will face Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League a few days before El Clásico. They lost in their Champions League away game against Lille.
FC Barcelona is in first place with 24 points in nine games. They scored 28 goals and conceded nine times, which means the goal difference is +19. Only one match was lost (4-2 away against Osasuna, 5th place). Before El Clásico, FC Barcelona will play in the Champions League against FC Bayern Münich. So, just like Real Madrid, they are facing one of the big German contenders. FC Barcelona lost against Monaco in the Champions League in their away game.
So, both teams lost points in La Liga, and both teams lost in the Champions League in an away game. Barcelona outscores Madrid at the moment but conceded more as well.
What does xG tell us?
Mallorca – Real Madrid 1-1 (xG 1.25 – 0.81)
Real Madrid – Real Valladolid 3-0 (xG 2.13 – 0.52)
Las Palmas – Real Madrid 1-1 (xG 0.41 – 2.95)
Real Madrid – Real Betis 2-0 (xG 2.40 – 0.65)
Reall Sociedad – Real Madrid 0-2 (xG 1.04 – 2.50)
Real Madrid – Espanyol 4-1 (xG 4.40 – 0.36)
Real Madrid – Deportivo Alavés 3-2 (xG 1.34 – 1.01)
Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid 1-1 (xG 0.89 – 1.05)
Real Madrid – Villarreal 2-0 (xG 0.46 – 1.76)
Total: 18.04 – 7.89
Actual: 19 – 6
Difference: 0.96 – 1.89
Valencia – FC Barcelona 1-2 (xG 0.94 – 3.12)
FC Barcelona – Athletic Club 2-1 (xG 1.37 – 1.17)
Rayo Vallecano – FC Barcelona 1-2 (xG 0.45 – 1.79)
FC Barcelona – Real Valladolid 7-0 (xG 3.97 – 0.40)
Girona – FC Barcelona 1-4 (xG 1.54 – 1.96)
Villarreal – FC Barcelona 1-5 (xG 1.64 – 3.04)
FC Barcelona – Getafe 1-0 (xG 2.11 – 0.70)
Osasuna – FC Barcelona 4-2 (xG 2.00 – 0.74)
Deportivo Alavés – FC Barcelona 0-3 (xG 0.70 – 1.73)
Total: 19.83 – 9.54
Actual: 28 – 9
Difference: 9.54 – 0.54
In nine games, the xG value of the chances that FC Barcelona opponents created was 9.54. The first match versus Valencia made it clear how that is possible, and this will be analysed a little further down the line in the Tactics paragraph. Madrid opponents have been underperforming, with the xG being 1.89 higher than the actual number of goals scored. While they have been overperforming with 0.96 more goals than the expected goals. On the other hand, FC Barcelona is overperforming big time, outsourcing their xG by 8.17 goals. Would they be able to keep overperforming over the course of the season? The opponents have been underperforming, with 0.54 xG more than the goals FC Barcelona conceded.
Squad Real Madrid
When looking at the Real Madrid Squad…
1.34 bn is the total value of the Real Madrid squad. The top three players based on their transfer value are Kylian Mbappé (€180.000.000), Vinicius Junior (180.000.000), and Jude Bellingham (€180.000.000).
We can do a full breakdown of the Real Madrid squad, but I think you would rather have a look for yourself. We will add our squad widget, which shows all the statistics of the players included in the squad.
Squad FC Barcelona
When looking at the FC Barcelona Squad…
The total market value of the FC Barcelona squad is € 880,40 mln. Based on their transfer value, the top three players are Lamine Yamal (€120.000.000), Gavi (€90.000.000), and Pedri (€80.000.000).
Like the Real Madrid squad, I won’t waste your time with a full breakdown of the FC Barcelona squad. Just have a look for yourself and find out all the stats of the players in the FC Barcelona squad thus far.
Injuries
Both parties have some injuries, which can have a major impact on how this game turns out. Let’s have a look. Keep in mind that El Clásico will take place on October 26th.
Real Madrid
Daniel Carvajal will miss the match against FC Barcelona, just like Brahim Díaz. Thibaut Courtois and Vinicius Júnior are expected to be back before this thriller.
FC Barcelona
Gavi is expected to be back on the 28th of October. The 20-year-old midfielder has been injured since November 20th. Perhaps he will be fit to play in time. Marc-André ter Stegen will surely miss this edition as he is expected to return in mid-2025. Andreas Christensen will miss this edition and is expected to return in January 2025. For Ronald Araújo, it might be possible to play as he is expected to return on November 1st. Dani Olmo is expected to be back on October 16th. Ferran Torres is expected to miss three weeks of matches. The Real Madrid matchup might come too soon.
See the image for more detailed information about the list of injuries for both teams.
Head-2-Head
We discussed the H2H results already. We concluded that the team with home advantage wasn’t the favourite per se. When watching Real Madrid’s home results, FC Barcelona came out on top in the Santiago Bernabeu (since the 2004/2005 season). However, if you look at the total (that includes FC Barcelona’s home games), FC Barcelona won 25 games, and Real Madrid won 24. So, it is pretty even.
Bookmakers
According to Bet365, the stakes are not evenly distributed. Keep in mind that these odds were applicable at the time of writing (10-10-2024). Things might have changed when you read this blog.
El Clásico Tactics
For some, football is like a game of chess, while for others, tactics make the game boring by making players feel like mindless robots. Whether you like it or not, tactics are a big part of modern football. So, let’s have a look at the tactics of Real Madrid and FC Barcelona.
Carlo Ancelotti
With a squad like Real Madrid, creating a fitting tactic can’t be difficult, right? With the new signing Mbappé, it seems to be more difficult than expected. Mbappé and Viniciús are actually in each other’s space. Add Rodrygo and Bellingham to the mix, and you have four players who are excellent in offence but are all free-roaming. So, with his star players all searching for space would the players be in each other’s way? Or would they confuse defenders like never seen before? Let’s dive in.
An important note is that even though Mbappé joined Real Madrid’s ranks, one of Madrids’ mosts important players left the club, being Toni Kroos. The German was among the top 1% across the top 5 European Leagues when talking about progressive passes (10.74 per 90 minutes) and a passing percentage of 91.5%. His stats get even more bizarre; he was the most successful player in the 2023/2024 season when talking about long passes (13.75 per 90 minutes) and he switched the play 2.43 times a match. An effective switch of play allows your side to attack over the less-occupied wing because all players are focused on the other side. Add the fast wingers of Real to the fast-paced switch, and you might be in for a dangerous attack. You can imagine how difficult it is to replace a player like Toni Kroos, right?
With Mbappé joining Madrid and Kroos leaving, you see a switch in tactics that might be insurmountable. And that is actually what we have seen. Bellingham isn’t as close to the penalty box as he used to be. He now operates more in the left half-space. When Real does not have the ball, Rodrygo will have a more defensive role on the right, while Bellingham switches to the left. This makes Real Madrid’s defensive formation more like a 4-4-2. With Camavinga and Bellingham missing out on a few matches this season, Real has been missing players who can link up the play between the defence and attack.
Has Madrid been able to tackle the Toni Kroos problem? Well, Valverde has been able to fix this problem partially. He has been able to switch the play over to the left wing multiple times. Being able to find Vinícius and put him in a 1v1, which is something Vini can do rather well.
Ancelotti doesn’t want to limit his players’ creative freedom and flair. These players are some of the world’s elite forwards. Forcing them into a rigid and more predictable system and stuffing their heads with defensive tasks might suppress attacking innovation and creativity. They might be battling a couple of issues during the season, but in the end, we do not doubt that Ancelotti will get the team to play amazingly with the squad they have. Until the final piece of the puzzle has been found, we will be likely to see more situations like the ones below.
Hansi Flick
Hansi Flick took over the role of head coach at FC Barcelona after Xavi Hernández. Flick seems to have infused his team with his tactics. There appears to be a whole new FC Barcelona this season. They are in first place after nine matches and play completely differently from last year. However, last season, the last line of defence seemed to be the Achilles heel of Xavi’s FC Barcelona, and this season, we have seen them give away multiple chances as well.
In build-up play, Bernal dropped deep to be a passing option for Ter Stegen or Barcelona’s defenders. Casadó worked hard to break Valencia’s press by finding room in the left half-space, so triangles between Baldé, Iñigo Martínez and himself were created. Even though a lot of important players were missing on Barcelona’s side, the team performed fairly decently in build-up play.
Barcelona showcased their ability to exploit space in central areas, but it was their effectiveness on both wings that secured the victory. Their international stars, fresh from standout performances in summer competitions, played a key role. On the right side, Yamal, Koundé, and Raphinha formed a dynamic trio, creating numerous opportunities. Barcelona’s versatility in attack meant it was no surprise that 43% of their forward play came through the right flank. Yamal’s tendency to draw multiple defenders opened up space for Koundé and Raphinha to make dangerous underlapping runs in the right half-space. These three were also able to rotate due to these runs.
The left flank played out differently, but Barcelona took full advantage of Valencia’s defence shifting to contain the threat posed by Yamal on the right. This movement allowed Ferran Torres to drift centrally, often picking up the ball in the middle and functioning as a de facto number ten. His ability to occupy these central spaces was particularly effective when Raphinha moved across to the right, giving Barcelona more fluidity in attack. Balde on his turn, was able to run on the left flank as Ferran wasn’t in front of him.
This showcases Barcelona’s immense attacking potential, with their manager’s tactical approach of expanding the pitch vertically and horizontally proving highly effective. Notably, this is all happening even before key players like Dani Olmo and Pedri become regulars in the lineup, further amplifying their offensive prowess.
Hansi Flick is known for his organised high-pressing tactics. However, Lewandowski may not be able to press as much as he did when he was Bayern’s number 9. This problem was tackled by letting Lewandowski and Raphina drop deeper to press Valencia’s double pivot.
However, Valencia’s fullbacks were free, while Barcelona’s wingers were pressing the central defenders. Balde and Koundé had to become aggressive, and Balde was able to make up for this with his speed, but Koundé had more trouble on his side of the pitch. You could find him in 2v1 situations, which led to the opening goal for Valencia in this match.
Future stars
La Masia is finally being used again. It is a bit of a necessity, but it is great to see so many La Masi players who might become future stars play every single week. We are talking about not only Lamine Yamal but also Fort, Cubarsi, Balde, and Casado, just to name a few. If this is enough to beat Real Madrid within a few weeks, that is something only time will tell.
El Clásico Prediction
https://api.sportmonks.com/v3/football/predictions/probabilities/fixtures/19135354?api_token=your_token&include=type
Alright, let’s have a look at the predictions of the Sportmonks Prediction API. I made a few requests to find out what our trained AI model says about this matchup, and I found some interesting results.
This blog describes that, on the eye, there is not too much to split the two sides. Everyone could agree that Real Madrid would have the better squad on paper. However, the current form of both teams shows that both have lost an away match in the Champions League. There is little to split the teams in the La Liga rankings, and both teams struggle with a few important injuries. However, the Prediction API predicts a win for Real Madrid with over 58% probability.
Let’s look at the correct score. Even with the Prediction API, it is really difficult to predict. However, we will highlight the scores with the highest chance of winning.
Our API makes many more predictions, but for now, I think this should give you a clear idea. You can imagine that these predictions will fluctuate based on injuries and suspensions in the upcoming weeks. So, one day before the start of El Clásico, I will include the updated predictions.
Use Sportmonks’ data for deeper insights
The Prediction API doesn’t do emotions. It is an AI-trained model that calculates the most logical outcomes. It is not human, like us. We use our gut, our emotions, and our lacking memory to predict the outcome of a match. If any Barcelona fans read this, most wouldn’t have predicted these outcomes on their bet slip. Why? They use their emotions to see FC Barcelona as their winning party. Or maybe they would opt for a draw. When I wrote down the H2H results of the last 20 years, I was surprised about the outcome of home advantage, which wasn’t there at all.
Leveraging the Sportmonks API to reach your goals
As one of the most anticipated football clashes in the world, El Clásico between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid captivates millions. For fans, fantasy football players, analysts, and bettors alike, it’s not just a battle between two football giants – it’s an opportunity to dive deep into the nuances that define the game.
Our Football API allows you to gain these deeper insights, transforming how you experience El Clásico.
For Fans: Beyond the passion and excitement, our API offers comprehensive data on player performances and match dynamics. From tracking who’s covering the most ground to analysing attacking patterns, you can go beyond the highlights and immerse yourself in the game’s finer details.
For Fantasy Football Players: Knowing which players are in top form can give you the edge in your fantasy leagues. With real-time data on player stats such as passes, shots on target, xG performance, and minutes played, you can make informed decisions and adjust your fantasy team accordingly.
For Analysts: Our API empowers analysts with historical data, advanced metrics, and real-time match updates. Whether you’re analysing possession strategies or looking at player heat maps, our data allows you to break down each moment of El Clásico like never before.
For Bettors: El Clásico is one of the most bet-on matches in football, and having access to in-depth data can be the difference between a win and a loss. Our API provides bettors with insights on team dynamics, past head-to-head matchups, and even weather conditions, allowing you to make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Whether you’re a fan just watching from home or a professional bettor making predictions, Sportmonks’ API delivers the insights you need to make El Clásico even more thrilling. Don’t miss out on a chance to experience football at a deeper level this season – use our data to get ahead!
Resources
Finally, I have a few extra links you might want to check out to get more information on our Products.
