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1. France
Group stage record: Won all three. 10 goals scored, 2 conceded.
Odds: +390 (FanDuel, as of June 28)
Round of 32 opponent: Sweden
France go into the knockouts as the only team who have been genuinely convincing from the first match to the last. They beat Senegal 3-1, demolished Iraq 3-0, and then beat Norway 4-1, with Ousmane Dembélé scoring a first-half hat-trick.
The numbers are startling. Ten goals in three games. Dembélé and Mbappé have each scored four. Olise has three assists. The attack can score from anywhere, in any way: set pieces, solo runs, long range, tap-ins. No team in this tournament has had to stop so many different types of threats from one side.
The questions are at the back. France conceded against Norway, and Hernandez’s penalty concession was not encouraging. Against a stronger attacking side, those lapses could matter.
But the bracket is kind. France face Sweden in the Round of 32, with the knockout path mapped out in FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup bracket. That bracket advantage, combined with the depth and firepower they have shown, makes France the team to beat.
Case for: Best attack in the tournament. Deepest squad. Favourable draw. Dembélé and Mbappé are both in elite form at the same time, which is rare.
Case against: Defensive leaks. Have not been tested by a top side yet.
2. Argentina
Group stage record: Won all three. 8 goals scored, 1 conceded.
Odds: +390 (FOX Sports oddsboard)
Round of 32 opponent: Cape Verde
Messi has been the story of Argentina’s tournament. He broke the men’s World Cup scoring record against Austria, then scored again as Argentina beat Jordan 3-1 to complete a perfect group stage, according to AP’s match report.
What makes Argentina genuinely frightening is not just Messi. Lautaro Martínez is clinical. Lo Celso, who scored the free-kick opener against Jordan, has been quietly excellent. Mac Allister and De Paul control midfield. Emiliano Martínez in goal has not been seriously troubled.
The bracket is significant. Argentina top Group J and face Cape Verde in the Round of 32, with their knockout route listed in the official FIFA schedule. If they get through the easier half, a Messi vs Mbappé final is the scenario the whole world is lining up for.
The concern is what happens when a team actually presses them. Every side playing Argentina will pack the midfield and make Messi work for every touch. The question is whether Messi, at 39, can do it for five more matches.
Case for: Messi is still decisive. Favourable bracket. Defending champions know how to win close knockout games.
Case against: Age. Physical drop-off in later rounds. Have not faced a top team yet.
3. Spain
Group stage record: Won two, drew one. 5 goals scored, 0 conceded.
Odds: +500 (FanDuel)
Round of 32 opponent: Austria
The 0-0 against Cape Verde was embarrassing. Spain dominated the ball but could not break through, with 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha one of the stories of the match according to Sky Sports.
Then Yamal came back. Against Saudi Arabia, Spain scored four in the first half and coasted the rest. Spain finished the group stage having conceded zero goals, which gives them the best defensive record among the top contenders.
The questions remain. The midfield has been dominant, with Pedri, Rodri and Olmo controlling games, but the attack has not created as freely as it did at Euro 2024 except against weaker opposition. Oyarzabal has been excellent as a false nine.
Spain’s bracket is the toughest of the top contenders. If they beat Austria, they could face a difficult route through the later rounds, as shown in the FIFA knockout bracket. There is no easy route for Spain from here.
Case for: Best defensive record in the tournament. Yamal back and firing. Deep, experienced squad that knows how to win major tournaments.
Case against: Hardest potential bracket of the top four. Attack has not been tested against elite opposition. The Cape Verde 0-0 still lurks.
4. Brazil
Group stage record: Won two, drew one. 5 goals scored, 1 conceded.
Odds: +1200 (FOX Sports oddsboard)
Round of 32 opponent: Japan
Brazil’s group stage was a story of growing confidence. The 1-1 draw with Morocco looked alarming. The 3-0 win over Haiti looked comfortable. The 3-0 win over Scotland looked like a team arriving at exactly the right moment, with Vinícius Júnior scoring twice and Neymar returning after a long absence, according to Sports Mole.
Ancelotti has done something important: he has made Brazil feel calm. Under previous managers this was a squad of brilliant individuals who played with visible anxiety in big moments. Ancelotti’s fingerprint is visible in how they play: press from the front, trust your midfielders, and let Vinícius do what Vinícius does.
The bracket is harder than Argentina’s. Japan in the Round of 32 is a genuine threat, especially given Japan’s recent World Cup history. Brazil then face a demanding route through the knockout stage, listed in the official FIFA bracket.
The long shadow is Brazil’s knockout record. They have not won a World Cup since 2002, and recent tournaments have ended in painful exits. That pattern is not destiny, but it is a pattern.
Case for: Vinícius at the top of his game. Neymar’s return adds creativity and menace. Ancelotti’s experience in knockout football is unmatched.
Case against: Brazil’s knockout record since 2002. Japan is a genuine Round of 32 danger. Getting through to the semi-final requires several big wins in a row.
5. England
Group stage record: Won two, drew one. 6 goals scored, 2 conceded.
Odds: +650 (FanDuel)
Round of 32 opponent: DR Congo
England had the most contradictory group stage of any genuine contender. They beat Croatia 4-2, drew 0-0 with Ghana, then beat Panama 2-0 to top Group L, according to ESPN’s England World Cup tracker.
Tuchel’s system is clear: press high, get it wide, get it into the box. It works when the personnel are right. It does not work when the opposition sits deep and defends the width, as Ghana showed. The question is whether England’s best is good enough to win five consecutive knockout games at a major tournament.
The case for England is Kane and Bellingham. Kane scored against Panama as England secured top spot, with Times of India reporting that Bellingham and Kane guided England into a favourable knockout bracket. Saka and Rashford provide the width. When the system clicks, England can beat anyone.
The case against England is that the system does not always click. The Ghana game showed how flat they can look against compact opposition. The defence has also been exposed at times, with Croatia scoring twice in the opener.
Case for: Kane, Bellingham and Saka are three of the best players at this tournament. Tuchel’s tactical flexibility has improved in each game. DR Congo, and potentially Colombia or Ghana after that, is manageable.
Case against: England’s historical inability to win knockout games consistently. The system breaks down against deep-defending opposition. No clean sheet against quality opposition yet.
6. Germany
Group stage record: Won two, lost one. 10 goals scored, 4 conceded.
Odds: +700 approximate
Round of 32 opponent: Paraguay
Germany have scored 10 goals in the group stage, level with France, but they have also conceded four, which is more than any other top-six contender. The 7-1 win over Curaçao was so dominant it tells you little. The 2-1 win over Ivory Coast tells you more: Germany can find a way.
Undav has been the story of Germany’s tournament. Three goals from the bench in the group stage, including two match-winners. The first eleven, with Kimmich, Wirtz, Musiala and Havertz, is full of talent. Whether the system around them is good enough is the question.
The loss to Ecuador was concerning. Germany were set up poorly, conceded too early, and never recovered their shape. Against better teams in the knockout rounds, those weaknesses will be punished.
Germany face Paraguay in the Round of 32, with the fixture listed in the FIFA match schedule.
Case for: 10 goals scored. Undav is one of the form impact players in the tournament. Musiala and Wirtz have the quality to unlock any defence.
Case against: 4 goals conceded. Lost to Ecuador. Germany’s recent knockout record creates a question about their ability to perform when it matters.
The ones just outside
Netherlands (+800): Won their group, 10 goals scored, and Van Hecke’s late winner against Morocco suggests they know how to close games. Gakpo, Brobbey and Dumfries have all had moments of quality. The concern is the last 16, where a major test likely awaits.
Portugal (+1300): Ronaldo got his goals against Uzbekistan but struggled against Colombia and DR Congo. Bruno Fernandes is excellent. The squad is deep. But failing to top Group K despite strong favouritism has made Portugal’s tournament feel narrower than it should.
Mexico (+1600): Nine points from nine in the group stage. A perfect group stage has Mexico as one of the tournament’s form teams, but they have not yet faced a side with the quality of the top six.
USA (+2000): Pochettino’s side has been the most consistent American team in modern World Cup history. Pulisic, Balogun and Reyna have all delivered. A home crowd for every game matters. A Round of 16 against Spain would be a very significant test.
The verdict
France enter the Round of 32 as the most convincing team in the tournament. Argentina have Messi and a favourable bracket. Spain have the defensive solidity but the hardest path. Brazil have the talent but the history.
If France play as they have in the group stage, this is their trophy to lose.
But this is the World Cup. It is July. Nothing is settled until the 19th.
